💸 Live Longshots for the 2025 Kentucky Derby

Who Can Shock the Tote — and Who You Should Fade, No Matter the Hype

The Kentucky Derby is chaos by design. A 20-horse cavalry charge, a pace meltdown waiting to happen, and a betting board ripe for a shakeup. That’s what makes it the best $2 bet in sports — because when longshots land, they land loud.

But not all bombs are live. Every year, we see trendy wise-guy horses soaking up buzz without the running lines or pedigree to back it up. Below are the under-the-radar threats who can blow up the trifecta — and the overhyped names we’re tossing without hesitation.

🐎 LIVE LONGSHOTS: READY TO OUTRUN THE ODDS

These aren’t prayer plays. These are horses with a legitimate path to the winner’s circle — if things break right.

🧱 9 Burnham Square M/L: 12/1 Fair Odds: 15/1

✅ Legit stamina with tactical speed
Burnham Square topped the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard this year, winning both the Holy Bull (G3) and Blue Grass (G1). In each, he galloped out like he wanted even more ground—exactly what he’ll get in the Derby. In both wins, he circled the field wide from last, and is bred to run all day. He’s shown enough tactical speed that he should stay in better position than most closers on Saturday. Dismiss him at your own will.

🍯 19 Chunk of Gold M/L: 30/1 Fair Odds: 30/1

✅ Undervalued grinder with upside
This horse has sneaky upside. While he hasn’t won since debuting in December, the lightly raced Chunk of Gold has stepped up big in every start since, finishing second each time on the Derby trail. In the Louisiana Derby (G2), he was the only horse to survive the punishing pace and still be running at the end. He doesn’t look flashy on paper—but you’ll regret leaving him off your tickets when he’s still there turning for home.

⚔️ 16 Coal Battle M/L: 30/1 Fair Odds: 30/1

✅ Tactical speed, tons of heart
Coal Battle keeps getting overlooked, despite showing up in every prep and yet to run a bad race. He breaks alertly, has the tactical speed to carve out his own trip, and consistently grinds through tough spots. He’s not one to tout on pedigree, but he’s the kind of reliable fighter who crashes the exotics when chaos strikes. With the right trip and the heart he keeps showing, a trifecta finish isn’t out of reach.

🗽 12 East Avenue M/L: 20/1 Fair Odds: 20/1

✅ Back in the groove at the right time
Back in October, we would’ve picked East Avenue to win the Derby after he wired the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) with a perfect blend of speed, stamina, and a classic pedigree. He was still our top-ranked horse all the way through January despite a stumble at the start of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) that cost him all chance. Then came the 2025 debut in the Risen Star (G2)—tons of buzz, but a total no-show 10th that left trainer Brendan Walsh searching for answers. Fortunately, flashes of the old East Avenue returned in the Blue Grass (G1), where he held off other speeds and nearly fended off the late-charging Burnham Square. He’s maturing at the right time and has every right to keep improving—but he’ll have his hands full against a loaded front-end group.

♟️ 3 Final Gambit M/L: 30/1

✅ Legit closer with a serious turn-of-foot
Final Gambit is this year’s top wise guy pick—and for good reason. While he still has to answer the dirt question, his Jeff Ruby (G3) win was jaw-dropping. He didn’t just win—he toyed with them, circling the entire field with ease. His explosive closing style fits the projected Derby pace meltdown like a glove. We haven’t seen his ceiling yet. If he handles the dirt, he’s the one they’ll all be trying to hold off late.

🚫 THE FADE LIST: DON’T GET SUCKED IN

Some of these horses will take money. That doesn’t mean they should. Whether it’s distance limitations, pace pressure, or plain old hype, here’s who we’re confidently dodging:

🐂 1 Citizen Bull M/L: 20/1 Fair Odds: 30/1

🚫 Needs the lead to matter — won’t get it
Yes, he’s the 2-year-old champ. But his best efforts came when he was handed the front end uncontested. In the Santa Anita Derby (G1), the second anyone challenged him, he folded. With multiple pace rivals signed on here, Citizen Bull looks cooked early. Toss to win — and he’ll need serious luck to even finish in the top half.

⚡ 20 Owen Almighty M/L: 30/1 Fair Odds: 100/1

🚫 Sprinter dressed up as a router
Sure, he qualified. And yes, he wired the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). But in the Blue Grass (G1), when he couldn’t make the lead, he was nowhere. Owen Almighty is a pure front-running sprinter in a 1¼-mile race loaded with speed that’s just way further than he wants to run. He’ll only ensure the pace collapses — not contend.

📚 13 Publisher M/L: 30/1 Fair Odds: 40/1

🚫 Lone maiden who constantly finds trouble
Steve Asmussen’s maiden gets buzz for outworking Tiztastic in the mornings, but he’s been chaos-prone in every start. In the Southwest (G3) and Rebel (G2), trouble found him. Then, in the Arkansas Derby (G1), he got a dream setup behind a meltdown — and still couldn’t pass Sandman. Of all the closers, Publisher is the one we’re fading hardest.

👩‍⚖️ 15 Render Judgment M/L: 30/1 Fair Odds: 100/1

🚫 Sentimental pick, but not competitive
The Toby Keith story is a great one. The horse? Just not fast enough. Trainer Kenny McPeek has said as much, and his form backs it up: 5th in the Blue Grass (G1), 2nd in the Virginia Derby, 8th in the Risen Star (G2). We’re rooting for Toby’s dream — but not betting on it.

😴 17 Sandman M/L: 6/1 Fair Odds: 10/1

🚫 Perfect setups, imperfect post
Sandman deserves respect — he has a classy pedigree and comes off a sharp 2.5-length win in the Arkansas Derby (G1). But let’s be honest: he’s been gifted two setups in a row. The Arkansas Derby fell apart after a blistering 45.21 half, and he capitalized. In the Rebel (G2), a similar pace developed, and he only managed third. Add in the dreaded 17 post — which has never produced a Derby winner — and Sandman becomes a toss at a short price.

🏇 FINAL THOUGHT

Longshots that matter have certain traits — stamina, versatility, and a setup they can capitalize on. For us, Burnham Square, Coal Battle, Chunk of Gold, East Avenue, and Final Gambit check those boxes.Don’t fall for the hype. Find the horses that fit the chaos. Because the best ticket you’ll punch this Saturday… might be the one nobody else sees coming.

Want even more Kentucky Derby content? Check out our Final Rankings, Pace Map, Why the Derby is so hard, and more!