One of the most important—and most misunderstood—factors in the Kentucky Derby is pace. Not just who’s fast, but who’s fast early, who’s forced out of their comfort zone, and who’s sitting in the right spot when the real running begins. With 20 horses breaking from the gate and a mad dash to the first turn, understanding how this race sets up can give you an edge most bettors overlook.
Pace Map:
Let’s break it down.
🚀 THE FRONT RUNNERS: SETTING THE TEMPO
These horses are likely to break cleanly from the gate and immediately try to take the lead. Expect them to push the pace early, aiming to wire the field and set the tempo for the race. If they can get clear, they’ll be tough to reel in—but a contested pace could work against them.
1 Citizen Bull – The 2-year-old champ does his best work on the front end — wiring the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and Robert B. Lewis (G3). But when pressed in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), he just folded badly. He’ll need a clean break and no company to get comfortable, which looks unlikely in this group.
4 Rodriguez – Freaky good when loose — just watch his Wood Memorial (G2) blowout — but often forced to rate when stablemates are around. He won’t want to cede control to Citizen Bull this time around, and with both entered, it’s hard to see either of Bob Baffert’s runners getting a clean lead—chaos fuel.
5 American Promise – Most seasoned runner in the field with NINE starts just turned his eye-popping career best 7.75 length win in the Virginia Derby. D. Wayne Lukas loves to train his runners into form, and that’s exactly what’s happened with American Promise. Despite doing his best running on the front end, his beautiful pedigree screams stamina and more than ready for the Derby distance.
12 East Avenue – The expected controlling speed of these four was once viewed as the division leader with legitimate staying power. Got nailed late in the Blue Grass (G1), but that was a solid effort showing glimpses of his old self. If anyone wires this Derby, it’s probably him.
20 Owen Almighty – He made the lead and never looked back in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), but those were soft early splits. With more heat and more distance in the Derby, he may be running on empty by the far turn. Still, his early speed guarantees he’ll shape the race.
Verdict: These five won’t make it easy on each other. With overlapping styles and something to prove, expect a strong, possibly suicidal, pace into the clubhouse turn. That’s music to the ears of the sixteen lying in wait behind them.
😤 THE PRESSERS: SITTING IN STRIKING RANGE
Pressers typically sit just behind the leaders, keeping the front runners honest before making their move. They can take advantage of any pace collapse but will need to strike at the right moment to capitalize.
6 Admire Daytona – Some remember Admire Daytona’s sire, Drefong, as a brilliant sprinter, but his offspring have proven they can route overseas. You could argue that he belongs with the front-runners off his gritty, wire-to-wire win in the UAE Derby (G2). He fought all the way to hold off Heart of Honor — a horse we’ll see next in the Preakness.
7 Luxor Cafe – The wildcard. This Japanese standout, bred on American bloodlines, has shown tactical speed and sweeping outside moves to beat his domestic competition. He’s used to racing clear of sandy kickback, and in a 20-horse field, breaking and positioning cleanly will be a new test.
10 Grande – After a gutsy second to a loose-on-the-lead Rodriguez in the Wood Memorial (G2), Grande proved he belongs. He’s pressed the pace in all three career starts and should get first run at tiring front-runners, with a pedigree built for stamina.
16 Coal Battle – Coal Battle does everything right: breaks alertly, adapts to any pace, and keeps outrunning his odds. Trainer Lonnie Briley said he was a workout short in the Arkansas Derby (G1); now fully tuned with the desired four workouts under his belt, he’s coming in ready to fire.
21 Baeza – Finally getting off the Also Eligible list is the versatile Baeza. He’s stalked just off the pace in his last three starts and proved he belonged at this level when finishing 2nd to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Unfortunately he’s stuck in the far outside post, so Flavien Prat has no other choice but to send early.
Verdict: This group will have the first opportunity to pounce and win it all if the speed collapses—and it just might.
📊 MIDPACK TYPES: IN THE FLOW
These are the horses sitting in that 7th to 12th range early on. They’re not involved in the scramble up front, but they’re not way out of it either.
8 Journalism – You couldn’t have drawn it up any better for the Derby favorite. Some will knock him for facing small fields, but he’s run down loose leaders and showed tactical speed when sitting closer in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). He’ll try to snap the seven-year drought of favorites winning the Kentucky Derby.
9 Burnham Square – Adaptability defines Burnham Square. He can win on the lead, but prefers to close. He unleashed two impressive last-to-first moves in the Holy Bull (G3) and Blue Grass (G1) and is bred to relish the extra distance.
15 Render Judgment – Just sneaks into the field from the Also-Eligible list just before the post position draw thanks to a fifth in the Blue Grass (G1). Blinkers have sharpened his speed figures, but he’s still a cut below. He still does his best running from midpack and will need a little luck here.
19 Chunk of Gold – A $2,500 bargain turned Derby starter. Since stretching out, he’s placed second in the Risen Star (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2) while rallying from off the pace. He laid too close early last out but fought on gamely — expect a more patient ride from Jareth Loveberry here.
Verdict: Don’t sleep on these. The race could fall into their lap.
🌀 THE CLOSERS: COMING WITH A LATE KICK, NEED A SETUP
They’re the storm brewing behind the chaos. These horses will bide their time, settle near the back, and wait for the front-end to self-destruct. If the early leaders go too hard too fast — and they just might — these six could be flying late.
3 Final Gambit – This is the strongest closer with the most upside in the race. We still haven’t seen his best. He inhaled the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) field like it was a warm-up jog and circling them all easily. Dirt is still the question mark — he’s been living on synthetic as of late — but if he handles the surface like he’s shown in his recent workouts, he has the tools to blow past this field late.
11 Flying Mohawk – This colt’s best work has come on turf and synthetic, but he snuck in with a runner-up finish in the Jeff Ruby (G3). On dirt, he’s a wild card. He’ll drop all the way back early and hope things melt down in front of him.
13 Publisher – Still a maiden — yet here he is. He took advantage of a blazing Arkansas Derby (G1) pace to rally for second behind Sandman. With another hot tempo expected, he’ll be looking to pick up pieces again late.
14 Tiztastic – He loved the distance and pace scenario in the Louisiana Derby (G2), using his stamina to outlast a tiring field. He’ll need to take another step forward to win at this level, but if things fall apart up front, his staying power could come into play.
17 Sandman – Took advantage of a suicidal Arkansas Derby pace to finally put it all together. Big stamina. Big finish. And while that setup isn’t guaranteed again, he’s always hinted he’d love 10 furlongs. Dangerous if things fall apart up front — and maybe even if they don’t.
18 Sovereignty – If you’re a replay watcher, go look at his Florida Derby (G1). Brutal post, stuck wide, new jock — yet still flying late. With Junior Alvarado back aboard, he’s a major threat to get involved down the lane. Has the kind of relentless finish you want in a 20-horse Derby.
Verdict: If the front-runners throw down like we expect, this race will set up for chaos. Closers like Final Gambit and Sovereignty have the turn of foot and mindset to capitalize. But in a 20-horse field, the difference between 1st and 5th might just come down to who finds the lane that opens — and who doesn’t.
⚡ TL;DR: 2025 Kentucky Derby Pace Overview
– Fast early types: Citizen Bull, Rodriguez, American Promise, East Avenue, Owen Almighty.
– Pressers (right behind): Admire Daytona, Luxor Cafe, Grande, Coal Battle.
– Midpack: Journalism, Burnham Square, Render Judgment, Chunk of Gold.
– Deep closers: Final Gambit, Flying Mohawk, Publisher, Sandman, Sovereignty, Tiztastic.
Expect a strong pace, meaning closers and midpack runners could have a better shot late.
🎯 THE TAKEAWAY:
Pace makes the race.
And this year? It’s shaping up hot.
With multiple front-runners and a stacked second flight, there’s a strong chance this Derby turns into a cavalry charge late. That hands the advantage to savvy pressers and patient midpack/closer types.
✅ Expect chaos.
✅ Bet accordingly.📣 Who’s your pick if the race melts down? Who survives if it doesn’t?
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