Kentucky Derby Rankings – April 1, 2025

📅 April 1, 2025

And we’re at the top of the stretch—just TWO more weekends remain to earn points toward the Run for the Roses. Halfway through the 100-point Championship Series races, the leaderboard has already seen massive shakeups, leaving us with more questions than answers.

🚨 Final Championship Preps Approach

This week, we’ll see the last FOUR major Kentucky Derby prep races:

🔸 Blue Grass Stakes (G1)

🔸 Santa Anita Derby (G1)

🔸 Wood Memorial (G2)

🔸 UAE Derby (G2)

Some top contenders will solidify their spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, while others will be forced to pivot to the Preakness or Belmont Stakes—setting up potentially massive ranking shifts.

🚨 Biggest Stories of the Week

🔹 Tappan Street & Sandman capitalize on pace meltdowns! Both punched their tickets to the Kentucky Derby with late-closing victories in the Florida Derby (G1) and Arkansas Derby (G1), respectively.

🔹 100-Point Prep Races favor closers—will the Derby pace follow? So far, all four 100-point preps (Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), Louisiana Derby (G1), Florida Derby (G1), Arkansas Derby (G1)) were won by closers, taking advantage of blistering early fractions.

🔹 Santa Anita Derby’s (G1) small field could spell trouble for former Derby futures favorite. The field is shaping up to have just five runners on Saturday, April 5. With less than six starters, only 75% of the normal Kentucky Derby points will be awarded (75-37.5-18.75 to the top three finishers instead of 100-50-25-15-10).

– Major Kentucky Derby contenders Journalism & Citizen Bull likely have enough points to make the Kentucky Derby.

– Barnes will need a top-two finish to secure his spot—or pivot to another race.

🔹 Arkansas Derby (G1) catapults a maiden into the Derby while ending another’s dream

– Publisher (Steve Asmussen): A maiden who has now hit the board in back-to-back Derby preps, earning 60 points—enough for a Kentucky Derby start.

– Cornucopian (Bob Baffert): A highly regarded debut winner was cooked in a speed duel with Speed King (setting :45.21 for the half-mile) before fading to fourth, failing to secure enough points.

With the 100-Point Championship Preps concluding this weekend, expect major ranking shifts. But for now, let’s break down Only Horse Racing’s Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders as of April 1—along with the rising threats who could shake up the field!

📌 Want a deeper look at how these contenders emerged? Check out our past rankings: January, February, March 17, and March 25.

🏇 Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders

1. Journalism (Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo) 📈 (-) (Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: 47.5 | Trainer: Michael McCarthy

🔹 The most impressive horse on the Derby trail returns this Saturday. No changes at the top—Journalism solidified his status as the premier Kentucky Derby contender with a dominant win in the San Felipe (G2). Despite a speed-favoring track, he reeled in odds-on favorite Barnes with ease, receiving a blistering 108 Beyer Speed Figure—matching the now-sidelined Magnitude’s standout Risen Star (G2) performance.

🧬 Pedigree Check: By Curlin, out of a graded-stakes-winning Uncle Mo mare, Journalism is bred for classic distances and has consistently improved as races get longer.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – San Felipe (G2) | 1st – Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) | 1st – Maiden Special Weight

📝 What’s Next? Santa Anita Derby (G1) – April 5

2. Sovereignty (Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini) 📈 (-) (Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: 110 | Trainer: Bill Mott

🔹 No shame in defeat. After overcoming a 4+ month layoff to win the Fountain of Youth (G2) over a speed-favoring short-stretch track, Sovereignty’s Derby stock is as strong as ever. He entered the Florida Derby (G1) as the favorite but had to overcome the far outside post and a new jockey aboard. Despite finishing a game second to Tappan Street, his effort proved he can handle adversity and longer distances—a crucial trait for the Kentucky Derby.

🔥 Why He’s Dangerous: Tactical speed, versatility, and finishing power. Sovereignty has closed strongly in slow-paced races and even overcame speed-biased tracks—showing he can win under any conditions.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 2nd – Florida Derby (G2) | 1st – Fountain of Youth (G2) | 1st – Street Sense (G3)

📝 What’s Next? Kentucky Derby (G1) – May 3

3. Citizen Bull (Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor) 📈 (+2) (Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: 60 | Trainer: Bob Baffert

🔹 Legitimate Derby threat or just besting stablemates? Citizen Bull has earned 60 points, headlined by his Robert B. Lewis (G3) victory. However, most of his competition has been fellow Baffert trainees, leaving lingering doubts about his ability against a more diverse field. We’ll get answers soon—he’s been stamina-building with blazing 5 & 6-furlong workouts since the Robert B. Lewis (G3) in early February, including a bullet 58.2-second drill on March 29.

🤔 Key Concern: His best races have come when controlling the pace unchallenged. With elite Derby contenders in the mix, can he handle early pressure and still kick home strong?

🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Robert B. Lewis (G3) | 1st – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) | 1st – American Pharoah (G1)

📝 What’s Next? Santa Anita Derby (G1) – April 5

4. Tappan Street (Into Mischief – Virginia Key, by Distorted Humor) 📈 (NR) (Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: 110 | Trainer: Brad Cox

🔹 Finally put it all together! After flashing potential early with a runner-up finish in the Holy Bull (G3), Cox skipped the Fountain of Youth (G2) to target the Florida Derby (G1)—a bold move that paid off. Tappan Street used his tactical speed to seize command before Sovereignty could reel him in with his late charge, taking full advantage of a pace meltdown to stamp himself as a legitimate Derby contender.

⏰ Well worth the wait. The extra training time between races refined and matured this lightly raced prospect—turning him from an afterthought into a serious threat on the first Saturday in May.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Florida Derby (G1) | 2nd – Holy Bull (G3) | 1st – Maiden Special Weight

5. Sandman (Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor) 📈 (+1) (Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: 129 | Trainer: Mark Casse

🔹 Finally returns to the winners’ circle! The once-overlooked Sandman is officially in the Kentucky Derby! He had settled for minor awards in the Rebel (G2) and Southwest (G3), but when the distance increased in the Arkansas Derby (G1), he took full advantage of a pace collapse, closing powerfully despite lugging in late.

💣 Why He’s Dangerous: Steady improvement, two-turn ability, and a strong closing kick. Sandman has thrived at Oaklawn Park, suggesting more distance will only make him stronger at Churchill Downs.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Arkansas Derby (G1) | 3rd – Rebel (G2) | 2nd – Southwest (G3)

📝 What’s Next? Kentucky Derby (G1) – May 3

6. Coal Battle (Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman) 📉 (-3) (Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: 95 | Trainer: Lonnie Briley

🔹 Biggest heart on the trail! Once thought to be a turf prospect with a questionable route pedigree, Coal Battle has defied expectations with four stakes wins. His Rebel (G2) victory in February propelled him to the top of the Derby leaderboard, securing his place in the Run for the Roses. He didn’t need to win the Arkansas Derby (G1) and, unfortunately, finished a distant third. Briley race thoughts, he wanted four workouts before this start but only managed three—expect that to be remedied before the Kentucky Derby.

🥊 Why He’s a Threat: Other than Citizen Bull, no horse on the trail has been as consistent. He breaks alertly, has tactical speed, and always finds a way to win. His form was further flattered when Tiztastic won the Louisiana Derby (G2), validating his Rebel (G2) performance.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 3rd – Arkansas Derby (G1) | 1st – Rebel (G2) | 1st – Smarty Jones

📝 What’s Next? Kentucky Derby (G1) – May 3

7. Barnes (Into Mischief – All American Dream, by American Pharoah) 📉 (-3)

Current Points: 18.75 | Trainer: Bob Baffert

🔹 Are flaws starting to show? The $3.2 million purchase had every advantage in the San Felipe (G2)—setting his own pace as the odds-on favorite, earning a 105 Beyer Speed Figure. Yet, he still couldn’t hold off Journalism’s late charge. In recent workouts, he has been outworked by Cornucopian & Rodriguez. Now, he heads to the small but salty Santa Anita Derby (G1), where a top-two finish is necessary to make the Kentucky Derby field.

❓ The Question Mark: His San Felipe (G2) runner-up finish proved his two-turn ability, but he has yet to face significant pace pressure—a key unknown as the Derby looms. His Derby Future Wager odds have plummeted from favorite to co-sixth choice at 15-1 in Pool 5 and are continuing to fall to this day.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 2nd – San Felipe (G2) | 1st – San Vicente (G2) | 1st – Maiden Special Weight

📝 What’s Next? Santa Anita Derby (G1) – April 5

8. Chancer McPatrick (McKinzie – Bernadreamy, by Bernardini) 📉 (-1)

Current Points: 35 | Trainer: Chad Brown

🔹 The most explosive closer in the field? As a juvenile, Chancer McPatrick looked like a future star, storming past fields with ease to become a multiple Grade 1 winner. While his Tampa Bay Derby (G3) runner-up finish was disappointing as the favorite, Chad Brown admitted he was only 80% ready for the race, prioritizing a Derby prep over peak performance.

🤔 One-turn closer? His two-turn efforts haven’t been as dominant, raising questions about his ability to handle the classic distance. Blinkers have sharpened his early focus, but he must prove he can unleash the same devastating late kick around two turns this weekend.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 2nd – Tampa Bay Derby (G3) | 6th – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) | 1st – Champagne (G1)

📝 What’s Next? Blue Grass (G1) – April 5

9. Captain Cook (Practical Joke – Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie) 📉 (-2)

Current Points: 20 | Trainer: Rick Dutrow

🔹 Bred for speed but proving much more. Despite a pedigree suggesting sprinting ability, Captain Cook dominated the Withers, overcoming a wide trip to win impressively. He’s showcased tactical speed in every start, breaking his maiden by 9.25 lengths while staying with a 45.30 opening half-mile. Then, in the Withers, he handled a slower pace (49.13) and still won easily.

🎰 All-in on the Wood Memorial. His connections skipped the Gotham (G3) to place all their chips on the Wood Memorial (G2), where he must finish in the top two to secure his Kentucky Derby spot. Since we saw him last, the Withers haven’t produced any live runners, so he still has to prove himself against tougher foes on Saturday.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Withers | 1st – Maiden Special Weight | 6th – Maiden Special Weight

📝 What’s Next? Wood Memorial (G2) – April 5

10. Burnham Square (Liam’s Map – Linda, by Scat Daddy) 📉 (-1)

Current Points: 30 | Trainer: Ian Wilkes

🔹 Crashing back to earth. Burnham Square regressed in the Fountain of Youth (G2), struggling from the start. He got worked up before loading and never looked comfortable, making for a tough trip. Racing wide at Gulfstream Park never helps, either. Despite the setback, his Holy Bull (G3) victory keeps him in the mix, and that race was flattered by Tappan Street’s Florida Derby (G1) win.

💪 Biggest Strength: His tactical speed allows him to set or stalk the pace—a key Derby trait. However, after his troubled trip in the Fountain of Youth (G2), he must prove he can handle adversity when it matters most.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 4th – Fountain of Youth (G2) | 1st – Holy Bull (G3) | 1st – Maiden Special Weight

📝 What’s Next? Blue Grass (G1) – April 5

📡 Horses On Our Radar:

These horses aren’t in the Top 10 (yet), but they’re making noise:

🔸 American Promise* – The beautifully bred son of Justify finally put it all together with a dominant 7-length victory in the Virginia Derby, securing his spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. While he still needs to prove himself against tougher competition, his pedigree screams distance and stamina, making him a legitimate Derby threat. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas believes one more start at Keeneland will further sharpen him before the first Saturday in May.

🔸 Baeza – A half-brother to Mage and Dornoch, Baeza is still developing, but he flashed brilliance in his last start, overpowering a deep maiden field. His true ability will be tested in the Santa Anita Derby (G1)—his first significant jump in class. He must win outright to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, making this a do-or-die prep.

🔸 Chunk of Gold* – Keeps proving the doubters wrong! The $2,500 purchase continues to defy expectations, securing back-to-back graded stakes placings and racking up 75 Derby points—easily securing his spot in the starting gate. His massive 43-1 runner-up finish in the Risen Star (G2) behind Magnitude raised eyebrows, and he proved it was no fluke by finishing second again in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He was the only horse running late after contesting a fast early pace, and he still managed to gallop out strongest past the wire.

🔸 East Avenue – After a runaway Breeders’ Futurity (G2) win, East Avenue has struggled to regain that form, despite visually impressive morning workouts since. With his Derby hopes slipping away, he returns to Keeneland, where he’s run his best race and must finish in the top two in the Blue Grass (G1) to keep his Kentucky Derby dreams alive.

🔸 Final Gambit* – Final Gambit delivered a commanding victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), surging strongly down the center of the track to win by 3.5 lengths, earning 100 points. While his pedigree leans turf, the versatile colt has handled all surfaces and distances well so far—but questions still loom large if he can handle dirt heading into the Kentucky Derby.

🔸 Flying Mohawk* – This Karakontie colt is bred for turf but has now qualified for the Kentucky Derby after closing strongly for second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), taking advantage of a pace meltdown. Part-owner Jayson Werth experienced Triple Crown success last year with Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he wants to take another shot at Derby glory. However, Flying Mohawk must prove he can handle dirt if his connections choose to run him at Churchill Downs.

🔸 Flood Zone* – The fast-rising colt skyrocketed from a Beyer Speed Figure of 48 to 98 in just three career starts. His 3.25-length Gotham (G3) victory earned him 50 Derby points, securing his spot in the Kentucky Derby field. Despite concerns over a slow-looking final time, he actually ran faster than older stakes horses on the same card. Connections are taking a risky path, opting for a final prep in the UAE Derby (G2)—a historically poor setup for Kentucky Derby success, as many UAE shippers return flat in the U.S.

🔸 Grande – Undefeated in two starts, this promising colt has displayed raw talent, winning both efforts by 2.5 lengths. However, he has yet to face top-tier competition. His first real test comes in the Wood Memorial (G2), his only shot at securing Derby points.

🔸 Hill Road – A 61-1 shocker in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), he closed well for third over a speed-favoring track at Del Mar. He validated that effort with another strong late rally for third in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), followed by an eye-catching gallop-out. Now at 24 Derby points, he needs at least a top-three finish in the Wood Memorial (G2) to qualify.

🔸 Luxor Cafe* – Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby winner Luxor Cafe has racked up a four-race win streak, including victories in the Hyacinth and Fukuryu Stakes. As a son of American Pharoah, he boasts a pedigree packed with distance and stamina, being out of a mare who produced Grade 1 winners Regal Glory and Café Pharoah. While he hasn’t generated the same hype as Forever Young did last year, he’s been visually impressive to pull away from his rivals. It looks like the Japanese could inch closer again this year to claiming a Kentucky Derby victory if his connections decide to make the trip.

🔸 Owen Almighty* – His connections have opted for Kentucky Derby glory over Pat Day Mile’s (G2) potential favoritism after his dominant wire-to-wire victory in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). He’ll have one final prep in the Blue Grass (G1) on April 5, aiming to build stamina. If he makes it to May 3, he’ll play a key pace factor, but can he sustain his speed over 1 ¼ miles? Doubts remain.

🔸 Publisher – Still winless, yet he’s secured 60 Derby points, enough for a starting gate spot. He ran a respectable fourth in the Rebel (G2) despite a troubled trip. Then capitalized on a pace meltdown to finish second in the Arkansas Derby (G1), beating the highly touted Coal Battle and Cornucopian. A live exotics contender come Derby Day.

🔸 River Thames – Proved he could handle two turns with a gritty second-place finish in the Fountain of Youth (G2), falling just a neck short of Sovereignty to earn only 25 Derby points. However, as a son of Maclean’s Music, distance limitations loom large heading into the Blue Grass (G1)—his final chance to qualify.

🔸 Rodriguez – A consistent top-three finisher, but he remains overshadowed by his stablemates. His distant third-place finish in the San Felipe (G2) leaves him with 21.25 Derby points, making him a Derby afterthought for many. He needs a major step up in the Wood Memorial (G2) to punch his ticket to Churchill Downs.

🔸 Sand Devil – Dominant against New York-bred competition, Sand Devil stepped into open company in the Gotham (G3) and finished a clear second behind Flood Zone. His connections take one last Derby shot in the Wood Memorial (G2) on April 5, where he’ll face his toughest test yet.

🔸 Tiztastic* – With 119 points, Tiztastic locked in his Derby spot by winning the Louisiana Derby (G2). Previously considered a grinder who picked off tired horses late, his pedigree suggests he’ll handle more distance well. While he still needs improvement to be a serious win threat, he’s a must-use in exotic wagers come Derby Day.

*Earned enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby (G1)

❌ Horses Who Fell Off Our Derby Radar:

🔹 Cornucopian – A dominant debut winner, he crushed a strong field by 5.25 lengths on the Rebel Stakes (G2) undercard. Quickly emerging as Bob Baffert’s newest buzz horse, he turned heads with a bullet six-furlong workout on March 17, outworking stablemate Barnes. His connections made a late nomination for the Arkansas Derby (G1), but a blistering pace duel with Speed King ended his chances early. While his Derby hopes are over, expect him to be a major player later in his 3-year-old season.

🔹 Madaket Road – After a disappointing effort in the Southwest Stakes (G3), he rebounded with a gritty runner-up finish in the Rebel Stakes (G2), setting a scorching early pace before holding on late as other speed horses faded. However, in the Arkansas Derby (G1), he was caught in another fast pace duel, this time with Neoquous, and both burned out to finish in the superfecta. With 46 Derby points, he has a chance to make the field, but if he does, he’ll likely be nothing more than added speed in a race already filled with pace.

🔮 Final Thoughts

With the final Kentucky Derby prep races nearly complete, expect plenty of movement in the rankings—and fast!

💥 Will Journalism hold onto the top spot as he faces Citizen Bull, Barnes, and Baeza in the Santa Anita Derby (G1)?
🔥 Can an overlooked longshot emerge in the final preps and punch their ticket to Churchill Downs?

As we wait for the dust to settle, we want to hear from you! Who are your top three Derby contenders? Which horses deserve a closer look? Drop your picks in the comments or join the conversation on Twitter (X) and Instagram!

📅 Mark your calendars! We’ll be back Tuesday, April 8, to break down how the Blue Grass (G1), Santa Anita Derby (G1), Wood Memorial (G2), and UAE Derby (G2) shake up OHR’s Kentucky Derby Rankings. Stay tuned as we move ever closer to the most exciting two minutes in sports! 🏇💨