The 151st Kentucky Derby had it all: a sloppy track, 19-horse cavalry charge, and a stretch duel for the ages.
And our top pick, Sovereignty, stormed past them all.
Sent off at 7.98/1 odds, Sovereignty tracked down the favorite Journalism and powered home to win the $5 million Kentucky Derby — and deliver a monster day for our followers.
We projected the pace meltdown, we found the value, and we got paid.
🏆 Race Recap: Pace Melts, Sovereignty Surges
The Derby broke clean over a rain-soaked Churchill Downs track, and as expected, Citizen Bull played a big factor in settting blazing fractions: 22.81 and 46.23.
The early speed started folding by the far turn. Journalism, sitting in the garden spot midpack, launched his bid under Umberto Rispoli — but lurking right behind was Sovereignty.
With Junior Alvarado back aboard, Sovereignty tracked Journalism’s every move, tipped out at the top of the stretch, and uncorked a relentless rally. He surged clear late to win by 1 ½ lengths.
Behind them:
Baeza, who rightfully drew in off the AE list, stormed late to grab third.
Final Gambit, trying dirt for the first time, stunned some in fourth.
And Owen Almighty, our lowest-rated horse, dug in gamely for fifth after pressing the suicidal pace.
💰 The Results: $100 into $523.08
We gave away stakes picks all Derby weekend long, as well as exactly how we played the Run for the Roses itself completely free, and the numbers speak for themselves:
✅ 12 winners from 16 stakes races across both Kentucky Oaks & Derby Day
✅ $40 Win on #18 Sovereignty @ $17.96 (7.98/1) = $359.20
✅ $2 Exacta 8,18 over 3,7,8,9,18,21 = $42.32
✅ $0.50 Trifecta 8,18 over 3,7,8,9,18,21 over 3,7,8,9,14,18,19,21 = $115.56
❌ $2 Exacta 3 over 7,8,9,18,21 = -$10
Total Bet: $100
Total Return: $523.08
Net Profit: $423.08
We told you Journalism would be perfectly positioned — but no one is untouchable in the Derby. Sovereignty was the clear #2 coming in and still disrespected on the board… until the late money poured in.
🧠 What This Means
The Derby wasn’t about hype — it was about race shape.
Our pace map predicted the pace collapse.
Our rankings and longshot previews spotted value like Final Gambit, who ran a massive fourth despite being dirt-debuting and cutoff at the start.
We faded Sandman, the second choice — nailed it.
And we gave you the exact blueprint to profit: no guesswork, just winners.
Where were we wrong? Owen Almighty. We thought he’d fold like every other sprinter type. Instead, he hung tough and completed a bonkers Super Hi 5.
🏇 Updated Triple Crown Trail Top 10
1. Sovereignty
2. Journalism
3. Baeza
4. Final Gambit
5. Burnham Square
6. Rodriguez
7. Sandman
8. Grande
9. Owen Almighty
10. East Avenue
The top three — Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza — looked the part in the Derby. But who will return for the Preakness?
🚨 BREAKING: Sovereignty Will Skip the Preakness
Trainer Bill Mott announced Tuesday that Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty will not run in the Preakness. Instead, the connections will point straight to the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga on June 7.
That officially ends any shot at a Triple Crown this year — and avoids what could’ve become a bigger debate.
With the Belmont shortened to 1¼ miles at Saratoga, a Sovereignty sweep would’ve sparked questions about legitimacy.
Now? That’s off the table.
But as one debate fades, another one returns:
Is the Triple Crown — three races in five weeks — simply too tough in modern racing?
It’s only been a few years since we saw a Derby winner skip the Preakness and wait for the Belmont (Rich Strike in 2022). But this one feels different.
Sovereignty came out of a career-best win sound. And still… no Preakness. That speaks volumes about today’s campaign strategy and pedigree limits.
So no Crown on the line — but still plenty of fireworks ahead.
If all goes to plan, we’ll be in store for a Belmont blockbuster with the main Kentucky Derby contenders, all fresh and all pointing to Saratoga.
And in the meantime? The Preakness just became wide open — and may now be Rodriguez’s race to lose.
🔁 What’s Next: Free Preakness Picks + Saratoga Countdown
You got these picks for free. We’re just getting started.
🔥 Free stakes picks drop again for Preakness Weekend (May 17–18)
🐎 Then it’s full steam ahead to Saratoga for Belmont Stakes on June 7, then fully opening July 10 — and we’re building our core squad now.
👉 Subscribe now to ride with us through the rest of the Triple Crown and into the Spa meet.
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