The countdown to the Kentucky Derby is on! Five months may seem like a long time, but every prep race is shaping the leaderboard and bringing future stars into focus. From dominant 2-year-old campaigns to buzzworthy up-and-comers, we’ve already seen fireworks so far. Let’s dive into OHR’s Top 5 Derby Contenders and rising stars to watch as we head into an exhilarating 2025 season.
Top 5 Rankings
1. East Avenue (Medaglia d’Oro – Dance Music by Ghostzapper) – 10 Points
East Avenue’s talent is undeniable. He stormed to victory in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity and a maiden special weight, showcasing a lethal combination of speed and power. While his stumble in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile ended his chances that day, it hasn’t shaken our belief in his untapped potential. The key question: Is he versatile enough to handle early pressure, or does he need to dominate the pace? So far, all signs point to brilliance.
2. Journalism (Curlin – Mopotism by Uncle Mo) – 10 Points
California’s leader? That’s up for debate, but Journalism’s decisive win in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity speaks volumes. He made easy work of heavily favored Gaming, displaying a new tactical running style showing versatility in his limited experience. A son of Curlin by graded-stakes-winning dam in Mopotism, Journalism’s pedigree suggests he’ll thrive with added distance. While Citizen Bull’s credentials as a multiple Grade 1 winner are impressive, we’re betting Journalism’s versatility and pedigree will give him the edge moving forward.
3. Sovereignty (Into Mischief – Crowned by Bernardini) – 10 Points
When Sovereignty romped home to win the Grade 3 Street Sense by five lengths in October, he announced himself as a serious player on the Derby trail. Sure, the field wasn’t top-notch, but his ability to make up ground on a slow pace showed maturity beyond his experience. Can this closer replicate that effort against stiffer competition? We’ll find out soon enough, but the potential is undeniable.
4. Chancer McPatrick (McKinzie – Bernadreamy by Bernardini) – 10 Points
Few horses have showcased raw talent like Chancer McPatrick in 2024. With two Grade 1 wins under his belt, his closing kick is electric. But his Achilles’ heel? A habit of getting into trouble early. Greenness early on hadn’t cost him until a sixth-place finish in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Still, his ability to finish strong, even after poor starts, makes him a top contender. If he can clean up his early race antics, he’ll skyrocket in these rankings.
5. Barnes (Into Mischief – All American Dream by American Pharoah) – 0 Points
Buzz surrounds Barnes, and for good reason. Even if it didn’t earn him any Derby points, he turned heads with a dominant Grade 2 San Vicente win, showing why he fetched a $3.2 million price tag. With a perfect 2-for-2 record and a tactical running style that bodes well for future pace scenarios, Barnes is a rising star who will be overbet in Derby futures pools. Expect him to be a key player once the distances lengthen and the stakes grow.
Other Horses on Our Radar
While our Top 5 have proven themselves in high-stakes races, several rising stars are waiting in the wings. These horses have shown flashes of talent and possess the potential to shake up the Derby trail, but they still need to take the next step to prove themselves against tougher competition or over longer distances. Here’s a closer look at the horses that are making noise on our radar:
- Burning Glory – With steady improvement in every start, Burning Glory finally broke his maiden thanks to a fast pace in his most recent outing. His pedigree suggests he’ll thrive in longer races, but he’ll need to prove he can perform under different pace scenarios.
- Citizen Bull – Currently the Kentucky Derby points leader with 40, Citizen Bull is a multiple Grade 1 winner. However, there’s still some skepticism surrounding him as he’s yet to face serious early pace pressure. Is he a legitimate top contender or just a need-the-lead type waiting to be exposed?
- David of Athens – Pulled off a surprising upset at 22/1 in an October maiden race, defeating Patch Adams. His pedigree hints at potential over longer distances, but his ability to compete with the best remains a question mark.
- Disco Time – Undefeated so far, Disco Time overcame a slow start to win at a mile with ease. His versatility and determination are promising, but he’ll need to handle stronger fields to secure his place among the Derby contenders.
- First Resort – A versatile runner with 10 Derby points already secured, First Resort has shown ability over both dirt and turf in graded stakes. If he can find consistency on one surface, he could become a serious threat.
- Patch Adams – Delivered a romping 10.5-length victory in a maiden special weight at the end of November. His commanding win at a mile showed why he’s been 4/5 in both starts. He’ll need to replicate that effort against higher-caliber fields to move up.
- Showcase – Another undefeated standout, he impressed with a dazzling Grade 2 Saratoga Special win back in August. While his ability is clear, the big question remains: Can he carry that dominance over longer distances?
- Uncaged – His maiden win on August 3rd, was overshadowed by Ferocious just one race later at Saratoga. His deep pedigree suggests he’ll improve as the races stretch out. Uncaged could be a dark horse to watch as the distances increase.
These horses may not have cracked the Top 5 yet, but they’re gleaming with promise. As the Derby trail unfolds, these names could rise rapidly if they deliver when it matters most.
What’s Next?
With 20 Derby points for a win on the line starting January 18th in the Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds, the Derby trail is about to heat up. Will East Avenue prove he’s the real deal or will another rising star claim the spotlight? The road to the Kentucky Derby is a marathon, not a sprint, but every prep matters.
We want to hear from you! Who’s your early pick for the Kentucky Derby, and which horses do you think deserve a closer look? Drop your thoughts in the comments below or let us know on Twitter (X) or Instagram. Stay tuned as the journey towards the most exciting two minutes in sports continues!