Kentucky Derby Rankings – March 17, 2025
March 17, 2025
As March kicked off, many of the top Kentucky Derby hopefuls faced off nationwide. While the Derby trail remains unpredictable, Journalism and Sovereignty have maintained their dominance, solidifying their status as leading contenders.
Over the past couple of weeks, some stars have secured their spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, while others have emerged from nowhere—leading to dramatic shake-ups.
🚨 Biggest Stories:
🔹 Journalism reaffirmed his top ranking with a dominant victory in the San Felipe (G2), posting a 108 Beyer Speed Figure while defeating two-time Derby futures favorite Barnes.
🔹 Sovereignty overcame multiple obstacles to win the Fountain of Youth (G2) in his 2025 debut, solidifying his place among the Derby frontrunners.
🔹 Owen Almighty’s connections initially targeted the Pat Day Mile (G2) on the Derby undercard, but his wire-to-wire victory in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) secured enough Derby points, prompting a target reevaluation.
With the 100-Point Championship Preps beginning next week, the rankings could shift dramatically. For now, let’s break down Only Horse Racing’s Mid-March Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders—along with the rising threats who could shake up the field!
For a closer look at how these contenders emerged, check out our January and February’s Kentucky Derby Rankings for the first developments on this year’s Kentucky Derby trail.
🏇 Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders
1. Journalism (Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo) 📈 (-)
(Derby Spot ✅)
Current Points: 47.5 | Trainer: Michael McCarthy
🔹 A headline-worthy 2025 debut! Journalism solidified his status as the top Kentucky Derby prospect with a dominant win in the San Felipe (G2). Despite a speed-favoring track, he reeled in odds-on favorite Barnes with authority, posting a 108 Beyer Speed Figure—matching the now-sidelined Magnitude’s standout performance in the Risen Star (G2).
🧬 Pedigree Check: By Curlin out of a graded-stakes-winning Uncle Mo mare, Journalism is bred for success at classic distances and continues to prove his ability as races get longer.
🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – San Felipe (G2), 1st – Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), 1st – Maiden Special Weight
📝 What’s Next? Santa Anita Derby (G1) – April 5
2. Sovereignty (Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini) 📈 (-)
(Derby Spot ✅)
Current Points: 60 | Trainer: Bill Mott
🔹 Overcoming all odds! Sovereignty proved his class in the Fountain of Youth (G2), shaking off a 4+ month layoff over a speed-favoring short-stretch track to defeat River Thames and favored Burnham Square. His Street Sense (G3) victory last year hinted at his talent, and this latest win confirms he belongs among the elite.
🔥 Why He’s Dangerous: Proven quality against adversity, he’s finished strongly in slow-paced races and worn down speed horses over bias-favored tracks—a critical trait for a Derby contender.
🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Fountain of Youth (G2), 1st – Street Sense (G3), 2nd – Maiden Special Weight
📝 What’s Next? Florida Derby (G1) – March 29
3. Coal Battle (Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman) 📈 (+1)
(Derby Spot ✅)
Current Points: 70 | Trainer: Lonnie Briley
🔹 Still the Kentucky Derby points leader! Once considered a turf prospect, Coal Battle has defied expectations, remaining undefeated in all five dirt starts. His Rebel (G2) victory catapulted him to the top of the Derby standings, securing his spot on the first Saturday in May.
🥊 Why He’s a Threat: Aside from Citizen Bull, no horse on the trail has been this consistent. He breaks alertly, has tactical speed, and always finds a way to win.
🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Rebel (G2), 1st – Smarty Jones, 1st – Remington Springboard Mile
📝 What’s Next? Arkansas Derby (G1) – March 29
4. Barnes (Into Mischief – All American Dream, by American Pharoah) 📈 (+1)
Current Points: 18.75 | Trainer: Bob Baffert
🔹 California’s second choice—or still a star in the making? Barnes had every advantage in the San Felipe (G2)—setting his own pace as the odds-on favorite, earning him a 105 Beyer Speed Figure. Yet, he still couldn’t hold off Journalism’s late charge.
❓ The Question Mark: While his San Felipe (G2) runner-up effort proved his two-turn ability, he has yet to face significant pace pressure—a key unknown as the Derby looms.
🌹 Road to the Roses: 2nd – San Felipe (G2), 1st – San Vicente (G2), 1st – Maiden Special Weight
📝 What’s Next? Santa Anita Derby (G1) – April 5
5. Citizen Bull (Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor) 📈 (+1)
(Derby Spot ✅)
Current Points: 60 | Trainer: Bob Baffert
🔹 Legitimate Derby threat or just besting stablemates? Citizen Bull has racked up 60 points, highlighted by his most recent Robert B. Lewis (G3) win. However, most of his competition has been fellow Baffert trainees, leaving doubts about how he’ll stack up against a broader field.
🤔 Key Concern: His best races have come when controlling the pace unchallenged. Will he handle pressure when facing stronger Derby contenders?
🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Robert B. Lewis (G3), 1st – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), 1st – American Pharoah (G1)
📝 What’s Next? Santa Anita Derby (G1) – April 5
6. Sandman (Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor) 📈 (+1)
Current Points: 29 | Trainer: Mark Casse
🔹 Grit and resilience define him. Once overlooked, Sandman has forced his way into the Derby conversation. His Southwest (G3) runner-up finish was gutsy—he stumbled badly out of the gate, somehow keeping Cristian Torres aboard. He followed that effort with a strong late rally for third in the Rebel (G2), galloping out strongest.
💣 Why he’s dangerous: He’s thriving at Oaklawn Park, improving with every start. His closing kick suggests more distance will only help.
🌹 Road to the Roses: 3rd – Rebel (G2), 2nd – Southwest (G3), 1st – Allowance Optional Claiming
📝 What’s Next? Arkansas Derby (G1) – March 29
7. Chancer McPatrick (McKinzie – Bernadreamy, by Bernardini) 📈 (+1)
Current Points: 35 | Trainer: Chad Brown
🔹 The most explosive closer in the field? At two, Chancer McPatrick looked like a future star, storming past fields with ease to become a multiple Grade 1 winner. While his Tampa Bay Derby (G3) runner-up finish was less than ideal as the favorite, trainer Chad Brown admitted he was only 80% prepared for the race, knowing time was running short to secure a Derby spot.
🤔 One-turn closer? His two-turn performances haven’t been as electrifying. The addition of blinkers did improved his early focus, but questions remain about his effectiveness at classic distances.
🌹 Road to the Roses: 2nd – Tampa Bay Derby (G3), 6th – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), 1st – Champagne (G1)
📝 What’s Next? Wood Memorial (G2) – April 5
8. Captain Cook (Practical Joke – Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie) 📈 (+1)
Current Points: 20 | Trainer: Rick Dutrow
🔹 Bred for speed but proving much more. Despite his one-turn pedigree being a son of Practical Joke, Captain Cook dominated the Withers (G3), overcoming a wide trip to win impressively. He must continue proving his quality against tougher next out in the Wood Memorial (G2).
🎰 All-in on the Wood Memorial. His connections skipped the Gotham (G3) to put all their chips on the Wood Memorial (G2), where he’ll need a top-three finish to punch his Derby ticket.
🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Withers, 1st – Maiden Special Weight, 6th – Maiden Special Weight
📝 What’s Next? Wood Memorial (G2) – April 5
9. Burnham Square (Liam’s Map – Linda, by Scat Daddy) 📉 (-6)
Current Points: 30 | Trainer: Ian Wilkes
🔹 Crashing back to earth. Burnham Square regressed in the Fountain of Youth (G2), struggling from the start. He got worked up before loading and never looked comfortable, making for a tough trip. Racing wide every step at Gulfstream Park never helps either. Despite the setback, his Holy Bull (G3) victory keeps him in the mix for a Derby spot.
💪 Biggest Strength: His tactical speed allows him to set or stalk the pace—a key Derby trait. However, after his troubled trip in the Fountain of Youth (G2), he must prove he can handle adversity.
🌹 Road to the Roses: 4th – Fountain of Youth (G2), 1st – Holy Bull (G3), 1st – Maiden Special Weight
📝 What’s Next? Blue Grass (G1) – April 5
10. Flood Zone (Frosted – Curls For Girls, by Curlin) 📈 (NR)
(Derby Spot ✅)
Current Points: 50 | Trainer: Brad Cox
🔹 Instant impact. In his first start for new connections, Flood Zone stamped his Derby ticket with a dominant 3.25-length victory in the Gotham (G3). The final time of 1:39.62 may not stand out, but compared to older stakes runners on the same card, his performance was notably stronger.
☄️ Meteoric rise—but not at the betting window! In just three career starts, Flood Zone has skyrocketed from a 48 Beyer Speed Figure on debut in December to a 98 in the Gotham (G3)—all while being sent off at increasing double-digit odds. Can he keep defying expectations?
🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Gotham (G3), 1st – Maiden Special Weight, 2nd – Maiden Special Weight
📝 What’s Next? UAE Derby (G2) – April 5
📡 Horses On Our Radar:
These horses aren’t in the Top 10 Kentucky Derby Rankings (yet), but they’re making noise:
🔸 American Promise – The beautifully bred son of Justify finally put it all together with a dominant 7-length victory in the Virginia Derby, securing his spot in the Kentucky Derby gate with 55 points. He’ll need to improve to be a real threat, but his pedigree screams distance and beyond.
🔸 Baeza – A half-brother to Mage and Dornoch, Baeza is still developing but flashed brilliance in his last start, overpowering a deep maiden field. He’ll face his first real test in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).
🔸 Built – With 35 points, Built is on the cusp of a Derby berth. He’s been a model of consistency, finishing 2nd in the Lecomte (G3) and 3rd in the Risen Star (G2). A strong effort in the Louisiana Derby (G2) should punch his ticket.
🔸 Chunk of Gold – A massive 43/1 upset runner-up in the Risen Star (G2), Chunk of Gold exceeded expectations behind Magnitude’s dominant win. With 25 points, he’ll need another strong finish in the Louisana Derby to secure a Derby spot.
🔸 Cornucopian – Dominated his debut with a 5.25-length victory on the Rebel (G2) undercard. If he takes the California route, he’ll face an uphill battle against deeper, more experienced Derby hopefuls.
🔸 East Avenue – After a dominant Breeders’ Futurity (G2) win, East Avenue has yet to regain that form. With his Derby hopes slipping away, he must deliver a big performance in the Blue Grass (G1) to stay in contention only having 10 points.
🔸 Grande – Undefeated in two starts, Grande has impressed with raw talent. He’ll get his first real test—and a single shot at Derby points—in either the Florida Derby (G1) or Wood Memorial (G2).
🔸 John Hancock – Engaged in a thrilling duel with Owen Almighty to win the Sam F. Davis in stakes-record time earning 20 points. That effort looks even stronger after Owen Almighty returned to win the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). John Hancock now targets the Louisiana Derby (G2).
🔸 Hill Road – A stunning 61/1 longshot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), Hill Road closed strongly for third over a speed-favoring Del Mar track. He validated that effort with another late surge for third in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), followed by an impressive gallop-out. Now sitting at 24 Derby points, he still has some work to do.
🔸 Madaket Road – Bounced back with a gritty runner-up finish in the Rebel (G2), setting a scorching early pace before holding on while other frontrunners folded. Now with 31 Derby points, he heads back to California before his next start.
🔸 Owen Almighty – A dominant wire-to-wire winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), Owen Almighty secured his Kentucky Derby spot with 65 points—if he wants it. Connections previously expressed interest in the Pat Day Mile, leaving his final target uncertain as of today.
🔸 Patch Adams – With 14 Derby points, Patch Adams has faced tough racing luck in both the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and Southwest (G3), encountering troubled trips in each. Trainer Brad Cox may give him one final shot to qualify, but he’ll need a big step forward to make the cut.
🔸 Poster – Overcame a speed-favoring track to rally for third in the Sam F. Davis (G3), moving his total to 16 Derby points. He’ll remain at Turfway Park for the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), especially with First Resort sidelined.
🔸 Publisher – Still winless, Publisher ran a respectable fourth in the Rebel (G2) despite another troubled trip. He remains in the Derby hunt with 10 points and could qualify without ever having visited the winner’s circle.
🔸 River Thames – Proved he belongs at this level in the Fountain of Youth (G2), finishing a game second by a neck to Sovereignty, earning 25 Derby points. However, as a son of Maclean’s Music, his pedigree raises questions about his ability to handle the 1 ¼-mile Derby distance.
🔸 Rodriguez – Consistently hits the board but remains in the shadow of his more hyped stablemates. With a distant third in the San Felipe (G2) last out, he sits at 21.25 Derby points but must step up to secure a spot in the starting gate.
🔸 Sand Devil – Dominant against New York-bred rivals, Sand Devil faced his first real test in the Gotham (G3), where he finished a clear second behind Flood Zone, earning 25 points. His connections will take one final Kentucky Derby swing in the Wood Memorial (G1) on April 5, where he’ll face tougher.
🔸 Tappan Street – Impressed with a strong runner-up finish in the Holy Bull (G3), collecting 10 Derby points, despite the race not looking as strong in retrospect. Opting to bypass the Fountain of Youth (G2), he’ll take his shot in the Florida Derby (G1) on March 29.
❌ Horses Who Fell Off Our Derby Radar:
🔹 Disco Time – The undefeated Lecomte (G3) winner earned 20 Derby points, overcoming a very wide trip, but has been off the track ever since. With no recorded workouts since mid-January, he is effectively off the Kentucky Derby trail.
🔹 Getaway Car – The Sunland Derby (G3) winner, now with 46 Derby points, is just on the cusp of qualification. However, his fourth-place finish in the Virginia Derby exposed his limitations at classic distances.
🔹 Keep It Easy – After closing out 2024 with a dominant Ed Brown Stakes win, Keep It Easy appeared poised for a strong season, clocking sharp workouts to start 2025. However, he struggled when stepping up into graded stakes company, finishing a disappointing sixth in the Fountain of Youth (G2).
🔮 Final Thoughts
With several pivotal Kentucky Derby prep races on the horizon, expect plenty of movement in the rankings—and fast!
💥 Will another hopeful impress enough to join Journalism & Sovereignty at the top?
🔥 Will any longshots emerge in the final preps to secure their spot in the Kentucky Derby?
While we wait, we want to hear from you! Who are your top three Kentucky Derby contenders? Which horses deserve a closer look? Drop your picks in the comments or let us know on Twitter (X) or Instagram!
📅 Mark your calendars—we’ll see you next week when we find out if the Louisiana Derby (G2) or Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) shakes up OHR’s Kentucky Derby Rankings! Stay tuned as we edge closer to the most exciting two minutes in sports! 🏇💨
