Kentucky Derby Rankings – March 25, 2025

March 25, 2025

Just under 40 days remain until the Run for the Roses, and the final Kentucky Derby prep races—each awarding 100 points to the winner—are officially underway. These high-stakes races have already shaken up the leaderboard, with Tiztastic, Final Gambit, and Chunk of Gold overtaking Coal Battle, who will look to reclaim his crown this Saturday in the Arkansas Derby.

Over the next few weeks, some stars will solidify their spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, while others will be forced to pivot to the Preakness or Belmont Stakes—setting up potentially massive shake-ups.

🚨 Biggest Stories:

• Final Gambit & Tiztastic both surged down the stretch with ease to punch their tickets to the Kentucky Derby, winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) and Louisiana Derby (G2), respectively, this past weekend.
• Bob Baffert’s stable is heating up: Cornucopian and Rodriguez outworked Barnes in back-to-back drills at Santa Anita, raising questions about the barn’s final prep race strategies. With Cornucopian now shipping to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby, uncertainty looms over the final plans for Barnes and Rodriguez, as Baffert may prefer to avoid a head-to-head showdown with Citizen Bull and Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby.
• Owen Almighty is officially in the Derby hunt. His connections have chosen the Kentucky Derby path over the Pat Day Mile. Trainer Brian Lynch will look for one final prep in the Blue Grass (G1) on April 5 to build more stamina for the grueling 1 ¼ mile classic distance.
• Coal Battle returns! Will the Arkansas Derby finally earn him the respect he deserves? The undefeated 5-for-5 dirt specialist has already racked up four straight stakes wins, including the Rebel (G2), yet enters this Saturday’s race as the 7-2 third choice on the morning line.

With the 100-Point Championship Preps in full swing, the rankings could shift dramatically. For now, let’s break down Only Horse Racing’s Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders as of March 24—along with the rising threats who could shake up the field!

📌 For a deeper look at how these contenders emerged, check out our January, February, and last week’s Top 10 Contenders update.

🏇 Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders

1. Journalism (Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo) 📈 (-)

(Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: 47.5 | Trainer: Michael McCarthy

🔹 The most impressive horse on the trail! No changes here—Journalism solidified his status as the top Kentucky Derby prospect with a dominant win in the San Felipe (G2). Despite a speed-favoring track, he reeled in odds-on favorite Barnes with authority, posting a 108 Beyer Speed Figure—matching the now-sidelined Magnitude’s standout performance in the Risen Star (G2).

🧬 Pedigree Check: By Curlin out of a graded-stakes-winning Uncle Mo mare, Journalism is bred for classic distances and has proven his ability as races get longer.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – San Felipe (G2) | 1st – Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) | 1st – Maiden Special Weight

📝 What’s Next? Santa Anita Derby (G1) – April 5

2. Sovereignty (Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini) 📈 (-)

(Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: 60 | Trainer: Bill Mott

🔹 Overcoming all odds! Sovereignty proved his class in the Fountain of Youth (G2), shaking off a 4+ month layoff over a speed-favoring short-stretch track to defeat River Thames and favored Burnham Square. His Street Sense (G3) victory last year hinted at his talent, and this latest win confirms he belongs among the elite. He draws the far outside 10 post in the Florida Derby (G1) this Saturday, and the addition of the speedy Bob Baffert trainee Madaket Road to the field should only help set up his late charge even more. 

🔥 Why He’s Dangerous: Proven quality against adversity, he’s finished strongly in slow-paced races and even run down front runners over speed-bias-favored tracks—a critical trait for a Derby contender.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Fountain of Youth (G2) | 1st – Street Sense (G3) | 2nd – Maiden Special Weight

📝 What’s Next? Florida Derby (G1) – March 29

3. Coal Battle (Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman) 📈 (-)

(Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: 70 | Trainer: Lonnie Briley

🔹 Biggest heart on the trail! Once thought to be a turf prospect with a questionable route pedigree, Coal Battle has defied expectations, remaining undefeated in five dirt starts, including four stakes wins. His Rebel (G2) victory in February propelled him to the top of the Derby leaderboard, securing his place in the Run for the Roses.

🥊 Why He’s a Threat: Other than Citizen Bull, no horse on the trail has been as consistent. He breaks alertly, has tactical speed, and always finds a way to win. His form was further flattered when Tiztastic won the Louisiana Derby (G2), validating his Rebel (G2) performance.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Rebel (G2) | 1st – Smarty Jones | 1st – Remington Springboard Mile

📝 What’s Next? Arkansas Derby (G1) – March 29

4. Barnes (Into Mischief – All American Dream, by American Pharoah) 📈 (-)

Current Points: 18.75 | Trainer: Bob Baffert

🔹 Are flaws starting to show? The $3.2 Million Barnes had every advantage in the San Felipe (G2)—setting his own pace as the odds-on favorite, earning him a 105 Beyer Speed Figure. Yet, he still couldn’t hold off Journalism’s late charge. 

❓ The Question Mark: His San Felipe (G2) runner-up effort proved his two-turn ability, but he has yet to face significant pace pressure—a key unknown as the Derby looms. His Futures odds plummeted from favorite to co-sixth choice at 15-1 in Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 2nd – San Felipe (G2) | 1st – San Vicente (G2) | 1st – Maiden Special Weight

📝 What’s Next? Possibly Santa Anita Derby (G1) – April 5

5. Citizen Bull (Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor) 📈 (-)

(Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: 60 | Trainer: Bob Baffert

🔹 Legitimate Derby threat or just besting stablemates? Citizen Bull has amassed 60 points, highlighted by his Robert B. Lewis (G3) victory. However, most of his competition has been fellow Baffert trainees, leaving lingering doubts about how he stacks up against a deeper field.

🤔 Key Concern: His best races have come when controlling the pace unchallenged. With stronger Derby contenders in the mix, will he be able to handle pressure and still find the wire first?

🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Robert B. Lewis (G3) | 1st – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) | 1st – American Pharoah (G1)

📝 What’s Next? Santa Anita Derby (G1) – April 5

6. Sandman (Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor) 📈 (-)

Current Points: 29 | Trainer: Mark Casse

🔹 Grit and resilience define him. Once overlooked, Sandman has forced his way into the Derby conversation with back-to-back strong performances at Oaklawn Park. In the Southwest (G3), he stumbled badly out of the gate yet somehow managed to keep Cristian Torres aboard and rally for second. He followed that with a powerful late surge for third in the Rebel (G2), galloping out best. 

💣 Why he’s dangerous: He’s thriving at Oaklawn Park, improving with every start. His closing kick suggests more distance will only make him more effective.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 3rd – Rebel (G2) | 2nd – Southwest (G3 | 1st – Allowance Optional Claiming

📝 What’s Next? Arkansas Derby (G1) – March 29

7. Chancer McPatrick (McKinzie – Bernadreamy, by Bernardini) 📈 (-)

Current Points: 35 | Trainer: Chad Brown

🔹 The most explosive closer in the field? As a juvenile, Chancer McPatrick looked like a future star, storming past fields with ease to become a multiple Grade 1 winner. While his Tampa Bay Derby (G3) runner-up finish was disappointing as the favorite, Chad Brown admitted he was only 80% cranked for the race, prioritizing a Derby prep over a peak performance.

🤔 One-turn closer? His two-turn efforts haven’t been as dominant, raising questions about his ability to stay the classic distance. Blinkers have sharpened his early focus, but he must prove he can unleash the same devastating late kick at 1 1/4 miles.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 2nd – Tampa Bay Derby (G3) | 6th – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) | 1st – Champagne (G1)

📝 What’s Next? Blue Grass (G1) or Wood Memorial (G2) – April 5

8. Captain Cook (Practical Joke – Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie) 📈 (-)

Current Points: 20 | Trainer: Rick Dutrow

🔹 Bred for speed but proving much more. Despite a pedigree suggesting sprinting ability, Captain Cook dominated the Withers (G3), overcoming a wide trip to win impressively.

🎰 All-in on the Wood Memorial. His connections skipped the Gotham (G3) to place all their chips on the Wood Memorial (G2), where he must finish in the top three to secure his Kentucky Derby spot.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Withers | 1st – Maiden Special Weight | 6th – Maiden Special Weight

📝 What’s Next? Wood Memorial (G2) – April 5

9. Burnham Square (Liam’s Map – Linda, by Scat Daddy) 📉 (-)

Current Points: 30 | Trainer: Ian Wilkes

🔹 Crashing back to earth. Burnham Square regressed in the Fountain of Youth (G2), struggling from the start. He got worked up before loading and never looked comfortable, making for a tough trip. Racing wide every step at Gulfstream Park never helps either. Despite the setback, his Holy Bull (G3) victory keeps him in the mix for a Derby spot.

💪 Biggest Strength: His tactical speed allows him to set or stalk the pace—a key Derby trait. However, after his troubled trip in the Fountain of Youth, he must prove he can handle adversity when it matters most.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 4th – Fountain of Youth (G2) | 1st – Holy Bull (G3) | 1st – Maiden Special Weight

📝 What’s Next? Blue Grass (G1) – April 5

10. Chunk of Gold (Preservationist – Play For Gold, by Cairo Prince) 📈 (NR) (Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: 75 | Trainer: Ethan West

🔹 Keeps proving the doubters wrong! The Preservationist colt continues to impress, securing back-to-back graded stakes placings and racking up 75 Derby points—more than enough for a spot in the starting gate. His massive 43-1 runner-up finish in the Risen Star (G2) behind Magnitude turned heads, and he proved it was no fluke by finishing second again in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He was the only horse running late after contesting a fast early pace and still managed to gallop out strongest past the wire.

❓ From a $2,500 bargain to a Kentucky Derby dream! Some of the best Kentucky Derby stories come from the most unexpected places, and Chunk of Gold is no exception. Purchased for just $2,500 due to physical concerns, he has proven to be worth much more. He’s yet to finish worse than second, improving in every start while showing tactical speed and resilience. He’s proving he belongs with this year’s best 3-year-olds.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 2nd – Louisiana Derby (G2) | 2nd – Risen Star (G2) | 2nd – Leonatus

📝 What’s Next? Kentucky Derby (G1) – May 3  

📡 Horses On Our Radar:

These horses aren’t in the Top 10 (yet), but they’re making noise:

🔸 American Promise* – The beautifully bred son of Justify finally put it all together with a dominant 7-length victory in the Virginia Derby, securing his spot in the Kentucky Derby gate. While he still needs to step up against tougher competition, his pedigree screams stamina. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas believes another start at Keeneland before the Derby could further sharpen him.

🔸 Baeza – A half-brother to Mage and Dornoch, Baeza is still developing but flashed brilliance in his last start, overpowering a deep maiden field. His true ability will be tested in the Santa Anita Derby (G1)—his first significant class jump.

🔸 Cornucopian – A dominant debut winner, Cornucopian crushed a strong field by 5.25 lengths on the Rebel (G2) undercard. He’s quickly becoming Bob Baffert’s new buzz horse after outworking stablemate Barnes in a bullet six-furlong workout on March 17. Connections made a late nomination for the Arkansas Derby (G1), where we’ll see if he’s the real deal.

🔸 East Avenue – After a runaway Breeders’ Futurity (G2) win, East Avenue has struggled to regain that form. With his Derby hopes slipping away, he must deliver a big performance in the Blue Grass (G1) to keep his name in contention.

🔸 Final Gambit* – Did Brad Cox just unveil his top 3-year-old? Final Gambit delivered a commanding victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), surging strongly down the center of the track to win by 3.5 lengths, earning 100 points. While his pedigree leans turf, the versatile Not This Time colt has handled all surfaces and distances well—but surface questions still loom large heading into the Kentucky Derby.

🔸 Flying Mohawk* – This Karakontie colt is bred for turf but has now qualified for the Kentucky Derby after closing strongly for second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), taking advantage of a pace meltdown. Part-owner Jayson Werth experienced Triple Crown success last year with Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he wants to take another shot at Derby glory. However, Flying Mohawk must prove he can handle the dirt if connections choose to run him at Churchill Downs.

🔸 Flood Zone* – The fast-rising colt skyrocketed from a Beyer Speed Figure of 48 to 98 in just three career starts. His 3.25-length Gotham (G3) victory earned him 50 points, qualifying him for the Derby. Despite concerns over a slow-looking final time, he ran faster than older stakes horses on the same card. Connections are taking a risky path with a final prep in the UAE Derby (G2)—a trip known to leave horses flat upon their return to the U.S.

🔸 Grande – Undefeated in two starts, Grande has showcased raw talent, but has yet to face serious competition. He’ll get his first true test—and a single shot at Derby points—in the Wood Memorial (G2).

🔸 Hill Road – A stunning 61-1 longshot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), Hill Road closed strongly for third over a speed-favoring Del Mar track. He validated that effort with another late-running third in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), followed by an impressive gallop-out. Now sitting at 24 Derby points, he still has work to do and heads next to the Wood Memorial (G2).

🔸 Madaket Road – Bounced back from a disappointing Southwest Stakes (G3) with a gritty runner-up finish in the Rebel (G2), setting a scorching early pace before holding on as other frontrunners faded. With 25 Derby points, he ships to Florida for his next test in the Florida Derby (G1) on March 29.

🔸 Owen Almighty* – His connections have opted for Kentucky Derby dreams over Pat Day Mile (G2) favoritism after his dominant wire-to-wire victory in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). He’ll have one final prep in the Blue Grass (G1) on April 5, looking to build stamina. He’s a key pace factor on May 3, but can he harness his speed over the Derby’s 1 ¼-mile distance? We have our doubts.

🔸 Publisher – Still winless, yet remains in the Kentucky Derby hunt. He ran a respectable fourth in the Rebel (G2) despite another troubled trip. He could qualify for the Derby without ever visiting the winner’s circle—a rarity in the modern era.

🔸 River Thames – Proved he could handle two turns with a hard-fought second in the Fountain of Youth (G2), finishing just a neck behind Sovereignty and earning 25 Derby points. However, as a son of Maclean’s Music, distance concerns remain heading into the Blue Grass (G1)—his final shot at a Kentucky Derby berth.

🔸 Rodriguez – A consistent top-three finisher who remains in the shadow of his stablemates. With a distant third-place finish in the San Felipe (G2), he now sits at 21.25 Derby points, a Derby afterthought for plenty. He must step up in his final prep to punch his ticket to Churchill Downs.

🔸 Sand Devil – Dominant against New York-bred competition, Sand Devil faced his first real test in the Gotham (G3), finishing a clear second behind Flood Zone. His connections will take one final Kentucky Derby swing in the Wood Memorial (G2) on April 5, where he’ll face much tougher competition.

🔸 Tappan Street – Showed real promise with a strong runner-up finish in the Holy Bull (G3), earning 10 Derby points. Connections skipped the Fountain of Youth (G2) to target the Florida Derby (G1) on March 29, where he must finish top two to qualify for the Kentucky Derby.

🔸 Tiztastic* – The new Kentucky Derby points leader has arrived! With 119 points, Tiztastic stamped himself as a contender after winning the Louisiana Derby (G2). Previously known as a grinder who picked off tiring runners late, his pedigree suggests he’ll relish more distance. While he still needs to improve to be a true win candidate, he’s a must-use in exotic wagers come Derby Day.

*Earned enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby (G1)

❌ Horses Who Fell Off Our Derby Radar:

🔹 Built – Despite accumulating 45 Derby points, Built sits on the bubble for a Derby berth. He’s been a model of consistency, finishing second in the Lecomte (G3) and third in the Risen Star (G2). However, he lacked a strong finishing kick in the Louisiana Derby (G2), settling for fifth. While he could still qualify, he no longer profiles as a serious win threat.

🔹 John Hancock – Stamped himself as a Derby hopeful after dueling Owen Almighty to victory in the Sam F. Davis (G3), setting a stakes-record time. That effort looked even stronger after Owen Almighty returned to win the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). However, he failed to back it up in the Louisiana Derby (G2), fading to fourth in mid-stretch. Now sitting at 35 Derby points, he’s on the outside looking in.

🔹 Patch Adams – With just 14 Derby points, Patch Adams has been hampered by tough racing luck. He encountered troubled trips in both the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and Southwest Stakes (G3), never getting a fair chance to show his best. Trainer Brad Cox may give him one final shot, but he’ll need a huge step forward to secure a Derby spot.

🔹 Poster – Overcame a speed-favoring track to rally for third in the Sam F. Davis (G3), boosting his total to 16 Derby points. However, he failed to build on that effort, finishing fourth in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3)—a race dominated by closers, a group he was supposed to be part of. That underwhelming effort leaves him off the Derby trail for now.

🔮 Final Thoughts

With the final Kentucky Derby prep races approaching, expect plenty of movement in the rankings—and fast!

💥 Will another contender rise to challenge Journalism and Sovereignty at the top?
🔥 Can a longshot emerge in the final preps to punch their ticket to Churchill Downs?

While we wait, we want to hear from you! Who are your top three Derby contenders? Which horses deserve a closer look? Drop your picks in the comments or join the conversation on Twitter (X) and Instagram!

📅 Mark your calendars! We’ll be back Tuesday, April 1, to see if the Arkansas Derby (G1) or Florida Derby (G1) shakes up OHR’s Kentucky Derby Rankings. Stay tuned as we edge closer to the most exciting two minutes in sports! 🏇💨