Kentucky Derby Rankings – February 2025
February 24, 2025
We’ll admit it—our January Top 5 Rankings were too limited and too far away from the 1st Saturday in May to only have a Top 5. The Derby trail is as unpredictable as ever, and with the Championship Series preps heating up, it’s time to expand our rankings. Welcome to Only Horse Racing’s February Kentucky Derby Rankings!
Over the past month, new stars have emerged, early favorites have faded, and the shake-ups have been dramatic.
🚨 Biggest Shake-Ups:
🔹 East Avenue, our top-ranked horse in January, flopped in the Risen Star (G2), finishing a distant 10th. He’s dropped out of our Top 10 and is barely hanging onto Derby relevance.
🔹 Magnitude stunned the racing world with a 43-1 upset in that same race, posting a 108 Beyer Speed Figure—only to be knocked off the trail days later by an ankle chip requiring surgery.
🔹 Bob Baffert is back, and his roster of Derby hopefuls is stacked. With his Churchill Downs ban lifted, he enters the mix with Citizen Bull, Barnes, Rodriguez, Madaket Road, Getaway Car, Cornucopian, and more, ensuring a deep presence in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
With the Fountain of Youth (G2), San Felipe (G2), and Tampa Bay Derby (G2) coming up fast, this list could look very different in a matter of weeks. But for now, let’s break down February’s Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders—and the rising stars to watch as the Road to the Kentucky Derby takes shape!
🏇 Top 10 Kentucky Derby Rankings
1. Journalism (Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo) 📈 (+1)
Current Points: 10 | Trainer: Michael McCarthy
🔹 California’s best Derby prospect? Many would lean toward Bob Baffert’s Citizen Bull or Barnes, but we’re rolling with Journalism. His Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) victory was a statement, showcasing tactical versatility and an effortless takedown of the favored Gaming. That form looks even better now that Getaway Car returned to win the Sunland Derby (G3) next out.
🧬 Pedigree Check: By Curlin out of Graded-Stakes winning Uncle Mo mare, he’s more than bred to handle classic distances.
📝 What’s Next? San Felipe (G2) – March 1
2. Sovereignty (Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini) 📈 (+1)
Current Points: 10 | Trainer: Bill Mott
🔹 Remember the Street Sense (G3)? Sovereignty looked like a future star when dominating by five lengths last fall. Some questioned the field’s quality at the time, but subsequent strong efforts from Sandman have only validated his performance.
🔥 Why He’s Dangerous: Mature beyond his experience, he’s finished strongly in every start, even in slow-paced races—a sign of a true Derby contender.
📝 What’s Next? 2025 Debut Fountain of Youth (G2) – March 1
3. Burnham Square (Liam’s Map – Linda, by Scat Daddy) 📈 (NR)
Current Points: 20 | Trainer: Ian Wilkes
🔹 Blinkers made all the difference! When Burnham Square debuted last fall, he was still figuring things out. But since adding blinkers, he’s been undefeated in two starts, including a decisive Holy Bull (G3) victory over rising star Tappan Street.
💪 Biggest Strength: His tactical speed allows him to set or sit off the pace—a crucial Derby-winning trait.
📝 What’s Next? Fountain of Youth (G2) – March 1
4. Coal Battle (Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman) 📈 (NR) (Derby Spot ✅)
Current Points: 70 | Trainer: Lonnie Briley
🔹 The new Derby points leader! The team of Juan Vargas & Lonnie Briley can officially dream of Kentucky Derby glory as Coal Battle sits atop the standings. Once viewed as a turf horse, he’s now 5-for-5 on dirt and has punched his ticket to Churchill Downs.
🥊 Why He’s a Threat: Outside of Citizen Bull, no one on the trail has been this consistent. He breaks alertly, has tactical speed, and rises to every challenge.
📝 What’s Next? Arkansas Derby (G1) – March 29
5. Barnes (Into Mischief – All American Dream, by American Pharoah) 📈 (-)
Current Points: 0 | Trainer: Bob Baffert
🔹 The Derby Futures favorite? One of the most hyped prospects on the West Coast, Barnes has crushed every challenger, including a San Vicente (G2) romp, where he pressed the pace before seizing complete control.
❓ The Question Mark: He dominated Bullard and others in the San Vicente (G2), but now he must prove he can handle two turns. With his pedigree, that shouldn’t be a problem at all.
📝 What’s Next? San Felipe (G2) – March 1
6. Citizen Bull (Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor) 📈 (NR) (Derby Spot ✅)
Current Points: 60 | Trainer: Bob Baffert
🔹 Legit Derby threat or just ideal conditions? Citizen Bull has racked up 60 points, winning most recently the Robert B. Lewis (G3). His success has largely come against Baffert-trained runners, leaving questions about his true ability.
🤔 Key Concern: He has tons of talent, but his wins have often come against stablemates who won’t ever challenge him in a race. This makes us continue to question if he’s truly Baffert’s top dog or just another need-the-lead type.
📝 What’s Next? Santa Anita Derby (G1) – April 5
7. Sandman (Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor) 📈 (NR)
Current Points: 29 | Trainer: Mark Casse
🔹 Grit and resilience define him. Once viewed as overlooked, Sandman forced his way into the Derby mix. His Southwest (G3) runner-up finish was gutsy—he stumbled brutally out of the gate, somehow keeping Cristian Torres aboard. Then just was rallying late for 3rd in the Rebel (G2), galloping out strongest, this past weekend.
💣 Why he’s dangerous: He’s thriving at Oaklawn Park, improving with every start. The way he’s finished off his races lately suggests more distance will only help.
📝 What’s Next? Possibly the Arkansas Derby (G1) – March 29
8. Chancer McPatrick (McKinzie – Bernadreamy, by Bernardini) 📉 (–4)
Current Points: 10 | Trainer: Chad Brown
🔹 The most electric closer of the bunch. At two, Chancer McPatrick looked like a monster, blowing past fields late to become a multiple G1 winner. But his raw talent wasn’t enough in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), where his greenness left him too much to do, finishing sixth.
🔑Key to His Success: He needs to mature and learn how to position himself better early. If he figures it out, he’ll be terrifying in the Derby stretch.
📝 What’s Next? Tampa Bay Derby (G3) – March 8
9. Captain Cook (Practical Joke – Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie) 📈 (NR)
Current Points: 20 | Trainer: Rick Dutrow
🔹 Defying his pedigree every step of the way. Bred for one turn, Captain Cook keeps proving he’s more than just a miler. He dominated the Withers, running wide the whole way and still drawing off late.
🎰 Connections’ Gamble: Instead of gaining more experience in the Gotham (G3), his team is betting it all on the Wood Memorial (G2), where he’ll likely need a top-three finish to make the Derby field.
📝 What’s Next? Wood Memorial (G2) – April 5
10. Rodriguez (Authentic – Cayala, by Cherokee Run) 📈 (NR)
Current Points: 10 | Trainer: Bob Baffert
🔹 Flattered by Back Class: Rodriguez’s form keeps looking better. Baeza returned to dominate a maiden field, while Madaket Road, third in the Robert B. Lewis (G3), ran huge for second in the Rebel (G2)—further validating Rodriguez’s performances.
🚧 Tough Road Ahead: The talent is there, but he’s still learning. He struggled between rivals in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) but re-rallied to finish a clear second behind Citizen Bull. With California’s stacked competition, he’ll need to keep improving to solidify himself as a serious Derby contender.
📝 What’s Next? San Felipe (G2) – March 1
📡 Horses On Our Radar:
These horses aren’t in the Top 10 (yet), but they’re making noise:
🔸 Baeza – A half-brother to Mage and Dornoch, he’s still figuring things out but crushed a strong maiden field last time. Up next: Santa Anita Derby (G1).
🔸 Built – Close to earning a derby spot with 35 derby points. He’s proving consistent with strong showings in the Lecomte (G3) (2nd) and Risen Star (G2) (3rd).
🔸 Cornucopian – Romped to a 5.25 lengths debut win on the Rebel (G2) undercard. Faces a tough challenge if he takes the California route to qualify.
🔸 Disco Time – The undefeated Lecomte (G3) winner (20 points) overcame a wide trip but has been off the track ever since. No recorded works since January 18.
🔸 East Avenue – Dominated the Breeders’ Futurity (G2) but has struggled since. His Derby hopes are fading fast.
🔸 Getaway Car – The Sunland Derby (G3) winner (36 points) is still seen as a ‘B or C Tier’ Baffert runner but is inching closer to securing a Derby spot.
🔸 John Hancock – The Sam F. Davis winner (20 points) and stakes record-setter in just his second start. He’s only beginning to tap into his potential.
🔸 Keep It Easy – Closed out 2024 with an easy Ed Brown win and has been training lights out towards his 2025 debut in the Fountain of Youth (G2) next week.
🔸 Madaket Road – Rebounded with a strong 2nd in the Rebel (G2), setting blistering fractions and hanging on while the other speeds collapsed. He’s earned 31 points so far.
🔸 Patch Adams – Struggled in his class test, finishing 4th in the Southwest (G3) after encountering trouble. Needs to step up to stay in the Derby conversation.
🔸 Poster – Closed strongly against a speed bias to grab 3rd in the Sam F. Davis. Earned 16 points and will look for a more fair track next out.
🔸 Publisher – Still a maiden, he held his own in the Rebel (G2) despite another troubled trip. Could qualify for the Derby without winning a race prior.
🔸 River Thames – Undefeated in two starts, including a dominant 6.5-length maiden romp at Gulfstream. The Fountain of Youth (G2) will be his proving ground as he stretches out against tougher company.
🔸 Sand Devil – Far too dominant for NY-breds so far, but the real test comes in the Gotham (G3) on March 1, where he’ll face his first real class challenge in open company.
🔸 Tappan Street – Earned 10 points with a strong runner-up effort in the Holy Bull (G3). Skipping the Fountain of Youth (G2) to target the Florida Derby (G1) on March 29.
❌ Horses Who Fell Off Our Derby Radar:
🔹 Aviator Gui – Well-bred for distance, but missed workouts have left him with no time to catch up.
🔹 David of Athens – Pulled off a shocking 22/1 maiden win in October but has disappeared from the scene since.
🔹 Grande – Flashed promise with an impressive maiden victory, but it’s likely too late to earn enough points for the Derby.
🔹 Hill Road – A 61/1 shocker in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), closing late for 3rd. Back on the work tab in early February, but still playing catch-up.
🔹 Showcase – Won the Saratoga Special (G2) in August, but an extended absence means he’s completely out of Derby contention.
🔹 Uncaged – Has a pedigree built for the Derby distance, but the clock has practically run out on his chances to qualify.
🔮 Final Thoughts
With several pivotal Kentucky Derby preps on the horizon, expect plenty of movement in the Kentucky Derby Rankings come this March.
💥 Who will keep their momentum in the San Felipe (G2), Journalism or Barnes?
🔥 Can Burnham Square or Sovereignty prove they’re elite in the Fountain of Youth (G2)?
🥊 Will Coal Battle stay undefeated on dirt heading into the Kentucky Derby?
We want to hear from you! Who are your top three Kentucky Derby Contenders? Which horses deserve a closer look? Drop your picks in the comments, or let us know on Twitter (X) or Instagram!
📅 Mark your calendars—we’ll see you in a few short weeks on March 17 when our next Kentucky Derby Rankings update drops! Stay tuned as we inch closer to the most exciting two minutes in sports! 🏇💨
