2025 Kentucky Derby Rankings – April 9, 2025

📅 April 9, 2025

The Road to the Kentucky Derby officially ended on Tuesday in the Blue Grass (G1). With the Lexington (G3) as the schedule’s final prep this Saturday, no remaining runners can earn enough points to make the Derby field, even with a win.

That means the 2025 Kentucky Derby Leaderboard is set, including international qualifiers Luxor Café and Admire Daytona, who have secured overseas invitations if they choose to make the trip to Churchill Downs.

🚨 Final Championship Prep Results

We saw the last four leaderboard-shifting 100-point Kentucky Derby preps this past weekend:

🔸 UAE Derby (G2) – 🥇 Admire Daytona, 🥈 Heart of Honor, 🥉 Don In The Mood

🔸 Wood Memorial (G2) – 🥇 Rodriguez, 🥈 Grande, 🥉 Passion Rules

🔸 Santa Anita Derby (G1) – 🥇 Journalism, 🥈 Baeza, 🥉 Westwood

🔸 Blue Grass (G1) – 🥇 Burnham Square, 🥈 East Avenue, 🥉 River Thames

These results caused major movement in the rankings as we saw Journalism dominate and cement his status as the Kentucky Derby favorite, while other Top 10 hopefuls like Barnes and Captain Cook were forced to pivot to new paths, potentially pointing to the Preakness or Belmont Stakes.

🚨 Biggest Stories of the Week

🔹 Bob Baffert’s rollercoaster final prep weekend.

Rodriguez made it look easy in the Wood Memorial (G2) with a gate-to-wire score, locking in his Derby spot. But stablemates Citizen Bull and Barnes both ran last in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), knocking Barnes out of Kentucky Derby contention and revealing Citizen Bull’s vulnerability when unable to control the lead.

🔹 Puca might be the broodmare of the century.

Since 1990, only two other broodmares—Weekend Surprise and Better Than Honour—have produced multiple foals to win a leg of the Triple Crown. Puca has now produced Mage (2023 Kentucky Derby Winner) and Dornoch (2024 Belmont Stakes Winner). This year’s foal, Baeza, sits 26th on the leaderboard after an impressive runner-up finish in the Santa Anita Derby (G1)—off just a maiden score. If he doesn’t make the Kentucky Derby field and connections aim for the Preakness. A Preakness win for Baeza would make history as Puca would become the first broodmare to have a different foal win each leg of the Triple Crown.

🔹 Japan is back in the mix.

Admire Daytona’s win in the UAE Derby (G2) adds another layer of intrigue. Alongside Fukuryu winner Luxor Café, the pair will try to improve on last year’s strong efforts from Forever Young (3rd) and T O Password (5th).

🔹 Points reduction may hurts Baeza’s Derby chances.

Because the Santa Anita Derby (G1) field only drew five horses, Baeza earned just 75% of the points normally awarded to a runner-up—landing at 37.5 points instead of 50. As of today, that leaves him fifth in line for a Kentucky Derby spot. With the full 50, he’d be the first off the Also-Eligible list, giving him a much stronger shot to make the field if there are multiple defections.

We’re now in the waiting game. Will connections dream big for Derby roses or point towards more realistic targets?

While we wait, let’s dive into Only Horse Racing’s Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders as of April 9.

📌 Want to see how we got here? Explore past rankings: January, February, March 17, March 25, and April 1.

🏇 Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders

1. Journalism (Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo) 📈 (-) (Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: 122.5 | Trainer: Michael McCarthy

🔹 In a league of his own. Journalism confirmed his status as the Kentucky Derby favorite with a composed, professional win in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). He navigated traffic smartly and overcame being boxed in by Barnes and Westwood around the three-eighths pole. This win adds to an already dominant résumé. First, he stamped himself a player by defeating Getaway Car and Gaming in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). He then overpowered Barnes in the San Felipe (G2)—despite Barnes being loose on the lead—earning a crop-topping 108 Beyer Speed Figure. His latest victory came at the expense of Citizen Bull, Bob Baffert’s top prospect and 2-year-old champion.

🧬 Pedigree Check: By Curlin, out of a graded-stakes-winning Uncle Mo mare, Journalism is bred to thrive at classic distances, and he’s only improved as the races have gotten longer. As of today, his biggest threat is the Post Position Draw on April 27.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Santa Anita Derby (G1) | 1st – San Felipe (G2) | 1st – Los Alamitos Futurity (G2)

📝 What’s Next? Kentucky Derby (G1) – May 3

2. Sovereignty (Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini) 📈 (-) (Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: 110 | Trainer: Bill Mott

🔹 No shame in defeat. After overcoming a 4+ month layoff to win the Fountain of Youth (G2) over a speed-favoring short-stretch track, Sovereignty’s stock remains sky-high. He entered the Florida Derby (G1) as the favorite but had to overcome the far outside post and a late rider change, as regular jockey Junior Alvarado was injured. Despite all of this, he closed strongly but had to settle for second behind Tappan Street, yet still flashing the kind of finishing power that wins Derbies. His loss has dulled his shine for some, but will only add value to him come Kentucky Derby day.

🔥 Why He’s Dangerous: Proven quality against adversity, he’s finished strongly in slow-paced races and even run down front runners over speed-bias-favored tracks—a critical trait for a Derby contender.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 2nd – Florida Derby (G2) | 1st – Fountain of Youth (G2) | 1st – Street Sense (G3)

📝 What’s Next? Kentucky Derby (G1) – May 3

3. Tappan Street (Into Mischief – Virginia Key, by Distorted Humor) 📈 (-) (Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: 110 | Trainer: Brad Cox

🔹 Finally put it all together. After an impressive maiden win and a runner-up effort in the Holy Bull (G3), Brad Cox opted to train up to the Florida Derby (G1)—an eight-week gap that paid off big. Tappan Street used his tactical speed to seize control before Sovereignty could uncork his late run and capitalized on a pace collapse triggered by Neoequos and Madaket Road. His tactical ability will give him a leg up on the field in the Kentucky Derby.

⏰ Well worth the wait. The added time between starts matured and refined this lightly raced colt, elevating him from under the radar to a serious Kentucky Derby contender.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Florida Derby (G1) | 2nd – Holy Bull (G3) | 1st – Maiden Special Weight

📝 What’s Next? Kentucky Derby (G1) – May 3 

4. Sandman (Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor) 📈 (-) (Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: 129 | Trainer: Mark Casse

🔹 Back in the winner’s circle. Long regarded as a horse who wanted more distance, Sandman finally broke through in the Arkansas Derby (G1). After minor awards in the Rebel (G2) and Southwest (G3), he took advantage of a pace meltdown caused by Cornucopian and Speed King, unleashing a powerful late run despite lugging in late.

💣 Why He’s Dangerous: Steady improvement, two-turn ability, and a strong closing kick. Sandman has thrived at Oaklawn Park all spring long and finally answered that more distance only makes his late run stronger.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Arkansas Derby (G1) | 3rd – Rebel (G2) | 2nd – Southwest (G3)

📝 What’s Next? Kentucky Derby (G1) – May 3

5. Luxor Café (American Pharoah – Mary’s Follies, by More Than Ready) 📈 (NR) (Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: JPN | Trainer: Noriyuki Hori

🔹 Japan is back in full force. The Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby winner, Luxor Café, brings a four-race win streak, including dominant efforts in the Hyacinth and Fukuryu Stakes. He unleashed sweeping moves proving to be much the best of the 3-year-old crop in Japan so far. Since those wins, his form has been enhanced by Admire Daytona’s UAE Derby (G2) victory.

🥊 Why He’s Dangerous: Pedigree, momentum, and visual dominance. A son of American Pharoah out of a More Than Ready mare who produced grade one winners Regal Glory and Café Pharoah, Luxor Café brings American bloodlines with proven stamina. He hasn’t generated the buzz of Forever Young, but his effortless late run suggests Japan may have another strong chance to win their first Kentucky Derby this year.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Fukuryu | 1st – Hyacinth | 1st – Kurochiku Sho (Allowance)

📝 What’s Next? Kentucky Derby (G1) – May 3

6. Rodriguez (Authentic – Cayala, Cherokee Run) 📈 (NR) (Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: 121.25 | Trainer: Bob Baffert

🔹 Finally steps out of the shadow. Long considered the “other” Baffert, Rodriguez has consistently hit the board but often played second fiddle to stablemates. His second in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) and distant third in the San Felipe (G2) came while being forced to rate behind Barnes and Citizen Bull. But the real version of Rodriguez finally re-emerged in the Wood Memorial (G2), where he went wire-to-wire against a field full of runners, all with something to prove, and he answered with authority.

🥊 The most proven front-runner in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Rodriguez is the only front-running horse in the Derby field to win at nine furlongs, and he looked like he wanted more. Expect him to be sent early, despite stablemate Citizen Bull doing his best running on the lead. His main pace threat may be East Avenue, who was nailed late in the Blue Grass (G1). Still, Rodriguez enters the Kentucky Derby as the most accomplished front-running threat with the fewest question marks.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Wood Memorial (G2) | 3rd – San Felipe (G2) | 2nd – Robert B. Lewis (G3)

📝 What’s Next? Kentucky Derby (G1) – May 3

7. Burnham Square (Liam’s Map – Linda, by Scat Daddy) 📈 (+3) (Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: 130 | Trainer: Ian Wilkes

🔹 Returns to form and tops the leaderboard. Burnham Square first turned heads with a bold victory in the Holy Bull (G3) from the far outside, but struggled next out, finishing fourth in the Fountain of Youth (G2) while wide and uncomfortable the entire time. He rebounded like the true contender he really is in the Blue Grass (G1), uncorking a last-to-first rally to nail East Avenue right on the wire.

💪Versatility wins in May. Burnham Square has shown he can lead, press, or close in any race shape, giving him tactical tools that are invaluable in a chaotic 20-horse Kentucky Derby race.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Blue Grass (G1) | 4th – Fountain of Youth (G2) | 1st – Holy Bull (G3)

📝 What’s Next? Kentucky Derby (G1) – May 3 

8. Grande (Curlin – Journey Home, by War Front) 📈 (NR) (Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: 50 | Trainer: Todd Pletcher

🔹 Proven quality under pressure. Grande stepped into the Wood Memorial (G2) off two wins, ready for a class test—and made a real impression. Wide throughout, likely to avoid as much kickback as possible, he pushed to midpack early, and still ran on to finish a clear second to Rodriguez, defeating Captain Cook in the process. With Curlin by a War Front mare pedigree, his classic stamina is real, and the ground loss + lone speed factor makes his defeat much more than forgivable next out in the Kentucky Derby.

🧬 Pedigree Check: With Curlin by a War Front mare pedigree, he’s bred for stamina, the classic distances, and beyond. His ground loss from the wide trip + lone speed factor of Rodriguez makes his defeat in the Wood Memorial (G2) much more forgivable and an even better reason to give Grande a look in the Kentucky Derby.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 2nd – Wood Memorial (G2) | 1st – Allowance Optional Claiming | 1st – Maiden Special Weight

📝 What’s Next? Kentucky Derby (G1) – May 3 

9. East Avenue (Medaglia d’Oro – Dance Music, by Ghostzapper) 📈 (NR) (Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: 60 | Trainer: Brendan Walsh

🔹 Blinkers bring him back to life. The addition of blinkers in the Blue Grass (G1) sparked a return to form, as East Avenue set a strong pace, put away pace rivals Owen Almighty and River Thames, and battled bravely when challenged late, just getting nailed by Burnham Square on the wire. Deep in the stretch, it looked like he was done, but he found another gear, showing the same mix of speed and grit we saw in his wire-to-wire Breeders’ Futurity (G1) win. With his front-running style, he’ll ensure an honest pace on Derby Day.

🥊 The early hype may not have been wrong. Once our top-ranked horse, East Avenue looked to be a man among boys in the mornings and during his early races. His flop in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) can be excused by a stumble out of the gate, but his Rebel (G2) effort as the odds-on favorite remains a mystery. Regardless, now that he’s officially in the field, everyone needs to take another look at this speedster.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 2nd – Blue Grass (G1) | 10th – Rebel (G2) | 9th – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile📝 What’s Next? Kentucky Derby (G1) – May 3

10. Final Gambit (Not This Time – Pachinko, by Tapit) 📈 (NR) (Derby Spot ✅)

Current Points: 100 | Trainer: Brad Cox

🔹 The most explosive closer in the Kentucky Derby field? After breaking his maiden in career start three, closing strongly into a paceless race over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park. Final Gambit proved his quality with a visually impressive score in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at 15/1—closing down the middle of the track to win by 3.5 lengths, crushing his class test.

❓ Dirt question looms. The Juddmonte homebred son of Not This Time out of a Tapit mare has a versatile pedigree. It leans more to turf but definitely has some dirt capability—his half-brother has routed on dirt successfully. The knock? The Kentucky Derby will be his dirt debut, and it doesn’t help that Brad Cox opted to start him on the turf after seeing his dirt workouts in 2024. But after his first dirt breeze at Churchill Downs (4F in 48.8 on April 2), all signs are positive so far. He may be a wildcard, but he’s no fluke.

🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), 1st – Maiden Special Weight, 2nd – Maiden Special Weight

📝 What’s Next? Kentucky Derby (G1) – May 3  

📡 Horses On Our Radar:

These horses aren’t in the Top 10 (yet), but they’re making noise:

🔸 Admire Daytona*
Winner of the UAE Derby (G2), Admire Daytona adds another name to the qualified Japanese contingent for the Kentucky Derby. He battled for the lead throughout and held off Heart of Honor late, despite being overtaken after the wire. Although sired by multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter Drefong, his offspring—like Admire Daytona—have excelled at longer distances. Still, his third-place finish to Luxor Café in the Hyacinth exposed some limitations. He’ll need to improve to be a serious player, but Japanese runners continue to gain respect after strong showings from Forever Young and TO Password last year.

Pros: Tactical speed, Win over taxing Meydan track
Cons: Outclassed by Luxor Café, Dubai-to-Kentucky transition is taxing

🔸 American Promise*
The beautifully bred son of Justify finally broke through with a dominant 7-length win in the Virginia Derby, locking in a spot in the Kentucky Derby gate. Distant second-place finisher Render Judgement came back in the Blue Grass (G1) to be a nonfactoring fifth, lowering the quality of his win a touch. American Promise’s pedigree screams stamina, but the decision to skip a final prep is a gamble and uncharacteristic of trainer D. Wayne Lukas. He initially considered a start at Keeneland but has instead opted for a seven-week layoff into the Derby—a historical red flag.

Pros: Elite breeding, stamina-rich profile
Cons: Long layoff, unproven vs. tougher company

🔸 Baeza
Out of super-dam Puca, Baeza is a half-brother to Mage and Dornoch and is already the family’s next star in the making. After a flashy maiden win, he ran second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), beating the classy Citizen Bull and Barnes. He currently sits 24th on the leaderboard with 37.5 points, but if he gets in, he’s a serious top 5 contender. For now, he’s penciled in as the major Preakness threat.

Pros: Strong pedigree, rapidly improving, showed class in major prep
Cons: Needs defections to qualify

🔸 Citizen Bull*
The 2-year-old champion was exposed in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), fading to fourth under pressure. His best performances come when unchallenged on the lead, and with East Avenue now confirmed in the Derby, an easy lead seems unlikely. He falls out of the Top 10 and becomes a firm play-against on Derby Day.

Pros: Juvenile champ, early brilliance
Cons: Cannot handle pace pressure, will face pressure in the Kentucky Derby

🔸 Chunk of Gold*
From a $2,500 purchase to Kentucky Derby starter, Chunk of Gold keeps shocking the racing world. He was runner-up at 43-1 in the Risen Star (G2) and backed it up with another second-place finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He was the only horse running late after pressing a hot pace and still galloped out strongest past the wire.

Pros: In form, proven stamina, gritty and improving
Cons: Still chasing a stakes win, pace-dependent

🔸 Coal Battle*
The iron horse with the biggest heart. Once dismissed as a turf type with distance limitations, Coal Battle now has four stakes wins and earned his Derby ticket with a gritty Rebel (G2) score in February propelled him to the top of the Derby leaderboard. Using the Arkansas Derby (G1) as final prep didn’t go fully to plan, as he finished a distant third. On the trail, he constantly broke alertly, adapted to any pace, and fought to the wire no matter the odds. His form was boosted when Rebel (G2) runner-up Tiztastic came back to win the Louisiana Derby (G2), validating the class of his wins. Overlook him at your own risk.

Pros: Consistency, tactical speed, great from the gate
Cons: Pedigree, distance, and quality questions

🔸 Flying Mohawk*
This Karakontie colt, bred for turf, has now qualified for the Derby after a strong-closing second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). He benefited from a pace meltdown and must now prove he belongs on dirt. Co-owned by Jayson Werth, who campaigned Belmont Stakes Winner Dornoch just last year, is going back to Churchill with another hopeful with a completely different running style.

Pros: Strong closer, Stakes quality on AW/Turf
Cons: Turf pedigree, unknown on dirt

🔸 Publisher*
Still a maiden but is Derby-bound, Publisher has earned 60 points, good enough for a spot in the gate. He ran a respectable fourth in the Rebel (G2) after a troubled trip and then capitalized on a pace collapse to finish second in the Arkansas Derby (G1). He’s a live longshot for exotics.

Pros: Good/dirtied recent form, tactical versatility
Cons: Still winless, continues to find traffic

🔸 River Thames*
The son of Maclean’s Music continues to defy expectations, with back-to-back minor placings in major preps, totaling 50 points. He was a gritty second in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and followed it with a close third in the Blue Grass (G1). However, his pedigree raises real distance concerns heading into the Kentucky Derby.

Pros: Consistent, always in the mix, improving
Cons: Pedigree distance limitations

🔸 Tiztastic*
With 119 points, Tiztastic secured his Derby spot by winning the Louisiana Derby (G2). Once viewed as a grinder who just picks up pieces late, he showed a new dimension in victory. His pedigree suggests he’ll handle added distance, making him a key exotic player, though a win may be a reach.

Pros: Peaking at the right time, suited for the distance
Cons: Needs to take another step forward to win

*Denotes horses who have earned enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby (G1)

❌ Horses Who Fell Off Our Derby Radar:

🔹 Barnes – A last-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) officially ends the Kentucky Derby dreams for the former futures favorite and $3.2 million son of American Pharoah, Barnes. The warning signs were there after getting outworked by Cornucopian and Rodriguez in consecutive drills leading up to the race. He’s still a great horse who posted an impressive 105 Beyer in defeat in the San Felipe (G2), showing flashes of greatness, but it won’t be realized on the first Saturday in May.

🔹 Captain Cook – Connections skipped the Gotham (G3) to put all their chips on the Wood Memorial (G2), where he needed a top-two finish to punch his Kentucky Derby ticket. His fourth-place finish wasn’t enough, ending a once-promising Derby campaign. The Withers winner still has upside, but not in this year’s Derby.

🔹 Chancer McPatrick – As a juvenile, he looked like the Kentucky Derby favorite, storming to multiple Grade 1 wins with powerful late kicks. But his 3-year-old campaign has underwhelmed. A runner-up effort in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) was forgiven due to being 80% ready, but a last-place showing in the Blue Grass (G1) was inexcusable. Right now, he looks more like a one-turn closer than a classic-distance contender.

🔹 Flood Zone* – After earning a Derby spot with a 3.25-length Gotham (G3) win, his stock plummeted with a seventh-place finish in the UAE Derby (G2). His meteoric rise from a Beyer of 48 to 98 in just three starts is impressive, but U.S.-based shippers returning from Dubai often need more recovery time than the Derby timeline allows. He’s a wildcard—if he runs at all.

🔹 Hill Road – A fever forced him to scratch from the Wood Memorial (G2), ending his chances to make the Kentucky Derby. He burst onto the scene as a 61-1 shocker in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), closing well for third over a speed-favoring Del Mar track. Then validated that effort with another strong late rally for third in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), followed by an eye-catching gallop-out. It’s definitely worth watching out for him later this summer.

🔹 Owen Almighty* – After a wire-to-wire score in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), connections caught Derby fever and stretched him out further in the Blue Grass (G1). But a last-place finish confirmed trainer Brian Lynch’s original instincts: he’s not a two-turn horse. Look for him instead in the Pat Day Mile (G2) on the Derby undercard

🔹 Sand Devil – Dominated New York Breds, but open company proved to be too much. His runner-up effort in the Gotham (G3) and sixth in the Wood Memorial (G2) showed he’s not quite ready for prime time. Expect trainer Linda Rice to steer him back to restricted company, where he should regain his confidence and winning form.

🔮 Final Thoughts

Even with the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard locked in, there are still plenty of questions to answer before the Post Position Draw on April 27.

As the dust settles from the final preps, we want to hear from you!

💥 Who are your top three Kentucky Derby contenders?

🏇 Which horse is the most underrated heading into the Kentucky Derby?

🔥 Do you think Baeza sneaks into the Kentucky Derby field, or is he Preakness bound?

🗣 Drop your picks in the comments or join the conversation on Twitter (X) and Instagram. We’ll be sharing fan rankings, insights, and more as Derby Day approaches!

📅 Mark your calendars: We’ll be back Tuesday, April 30, to break down how the Kentucky Derby Post Position Draw could shake up the field—and what that means for OHR’s Final Kentucky Derby Rankings for 2025.

Stay tuned…
The most exciting two minutes in sports is almost here. 🏇💨