📅 April 30, 2025
It’s officially Kentucky Derby week. The field is set, the post positions are drawn, and the countdown to the most exciting two minutes in sports is on. Whether you’re betting the big one or scouting the stars across a stacked undercard, Churchill Downs will be buzzing all weekend.
This year’s field includes a mix of battle-tested contenders and emerging threats—plus a few wildcards from overseas like Luxor Cafe and Admire Daytona, all eligible via international invitation.
And just as things were settling, chaos struck again…
🚨 Biggest Stories of the Week
🔹 Tappan Street Scratched with Injury
In a heartbreaking turn during his final Derby week workout, jockey Luis Saez sensed something off as Tappan Street returned to the barn. The diagnosis: a condylar fracture in his right foreleg. He’s officially out of the Kentucky Derby, but underwent successful surgery and is expected to make a comeback later this year—potentially pointing to the 2026 Pegasus World Cup. One of the sharpest closers in training, his absence will be felt.
🔹 Derby Weekend is STACKED with Stars
It’s not just about the Run for the Roses. The Churchill undercard is loaded with major matchups:
🏇 Thorpedo Anna headlines the La Troienne (G1) against Randomized and Raging Sea
🔥 2024 Derby winner Fierceness returns in the Alysheba (G2) to face Locked
🚀 Nysos makes his long-awaited return in the Churchill Downs (G1), clashing with Mindframe and Book’em Danno
And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. From top-tier 3-year-olds to returning champions, Derby weekend is a must-watch from the first post to the final stretch.
📋 Kentucky Derby 2025 Field & Morning Line Odds
| 🏆 | 2025 Kentucky Derby | 🌹 | Morning Line | 🥀 | Also-Eligible |
| 1 | Citizen Bull – 20/1 | 11 | Flying Mohawk – 30/1 | 21 | Baeza – 12/1 |
| 2 | Neoequos – 30/1 | 12 | East Avenue – 20/1 | ||
| 3 | Final Gambit – 30/1 | 13 | Publisher – 30/1 | ||
| 4 | Rodriguez – 12/1 | 14 | Tiztastic – 20/1 | ||
| 5 | American Promise – 30/1 | 15 | Render Judgment – 30/1 | ||
| 6 | Admire Daytona – 30/1 | 16 | Coal Battle – 30/1 | ||
| 7 | Luxor Cafe – 15/1 | 17 | Sandman – 6/1 | ||
| 8 | Journalism – 3/1 | 18 | Sovereignty – 5/1 | ||
| 9 | Burnham Square – 12/1 | 19 | Chunk of Gold – 30/1 | ||
| 10 | Grande – 30/1 | 20 | Owen Almighty – 30/1 |
While we wait for the weekend, let’s dive into Only Horse Racing’s Final Kentucky Derby Rankings before Saturday.
📌 Want to see the full journey? Revisit past rankings: January · February · March 17 · March 25 · April 1 · April 9 · Pace Map · More!
🏇 Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders
1. Journalism (Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo)
Post 8 | M/L: 3/1 | Fair Odds: 5/2 | Jockey: Umberto Rispoli | Trainer: Michael McCarthy
🔹 In a league of his own. Journalism enters as the clear Derby favorite after yet another clean, dominant win on the road to the roses in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). He showed maturity navigating tight spots and reeled in Citizen Bull and held off the charging Baeza. You couldn’t ask for a better draw in post 8 as he aims to become the first favorite to win since Justify in 2018.
🧬 Bred for glory. With Curlin on top and an Uncle Mo mare underneath, he’s built for stamina and power — and he’s looked stronger as the distances have stretched.
🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Santa Anita Derby (G1) | 1st – San Felipe (G2) | 1st – Los Alamitos Futurity (G2)
2. Sovereignty (Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini)
Post 18 | M/L: 5/1 | Fair Odds: 6/1 | Jockey: Junior Alvarado | Trainer: Bill Mott
🔹 The closer with credentials. Sovereignty was impressive off the bench, running everyone down in the Fountain of Youth (G2), proving his Street Sense (G3) win back in October was no fluke. He couldn’t catch the winner in the Florida Derby (G1), but he stayed on well and now lands in post 18 — a dreaded spot historically — but for a closer like him, it could be a blessing in disguise.
🔥 Why He’s Dangerous: Proven class and versatility — he’s finished strong in slow-paced races and even reeled in front-runners on speed-favoring tracks. That’s a rare and valuable skill on Derby Day.
🌹 Road to the Roses: 2nd – Florida Derby (G2) | 1st – Fountain of Youth (G2) | 1st – Street Sense (G3)
3. Sandman (Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor)
Post 17 | M/L: 6/1 | Fair Odds: 10/1 | Jockey: Jose Ortiz | Trainer: Mark Casse
🔹 The further they go, the better he gets. Sandman turned in his best effort yet when given nine furlongs in the Arkansas Derby (G1), uncorking a long, grinding run to blow by the field late. Post 17 is a historical death trap, but for a stamina grinder like him, it may be a gift.
🧱 The classic closer build. He doesn’t win style points early, but he keeps coming, and Tapit’s influence only grows with distance. If this turns into a stamina test, he’ll be one of the last horses standing.
🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Arkansas Derby (G1) | 3rd – Rebel (G2) | 2nd – Southwest (G3)
4. Luxor Cafe (American Pharoah – Mary’s Follies, by More Than Ready)
Post 7 | M/L: 15/1 | Fair Odds: 12/1 | Jockey: Joao Moreira | Trainer: Noriyuki Hori
🔹 The mystery missile. Luxor Cafe brings a four-race win streak and a strong turn of foot from Japan. He’s drawn great in post 7, which should let Moreira work out a stalking trip similar to what we saw in the Fukuryu. The quality of competition in Japan is tough to measure, but he looked like a star every step of the way.
🌍 International flavor with an American Pedigree. He’s by Triple Crown champ American Pharoah and out of a More Than Ready mare who’s produced successful runners all around the world. If the Japanese form translates, watch out.
🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Fukuryu | 1st – Hyacinth | 1st – Kurochiku Sho (Allowance)
5. Rodriguez (Authentic – Cayala, by Cherokee Run) Scratched
Post 4 | M/L: 12/1 | Fair Odds: 12/1 | Jockey: Mike Smith | Trainer: Bob Baffert
🔹 Top dog in the Baffert Barn? Rodriguez stepped out of the shadow and wired the Wood Memorial (G2) racing free from his stablemates and showed he’s talented and can carry his early speed beyond 1 1/8 miles. Drawing post 4 means one thing: he has to send — but no one’s better at executing that plan than Baffert and “Big Money” Mike.
💨 Pure Pace. While no one has going the Kentucky Derby distance before, Rodriguez was the only runner whose early speed held up going gate-to-wire at 9 furlongs. He’s dangerous if the pace isn’t suicidal, and the speed horse with the best shot to last.
🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Wood Memorial (G2) | 3rd – San Felipe (G2) | 2nd – Robert B. Lewis (G3)
6. Burnham Square (Liam’s Map – Linda, by Scat Daddy)
Post 9 | M/L: 12/1 | Fair Odds: 15/1 | Jockey: Brian Hernandez | Trainer: Ian Wilkes
🔹 Returns to form and tops the leaderboard. Burnham Square made noise with a bold win in the Holy Bull (G3) from the far outside, then disappointed when stuck wide and uncomfortable in the Fountain of Youth (G2). But he roared back in the Blue Grass (G1), launching a last-to-first rally to nail East Avenue at the wire. Now he draws beautifully in post 9, and with all the speed inside, he could carve out a ground-saving trip if they choose to tuck in early.
💪Versatility wins in May. Burnham Square has shown he can lead, press, or close, giving him tactical tools that are invaluable in a chaotic 20-horse Derby field.
🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Blue Grass (G1) | 4th – Fountain of Youth (G2) | 1st – Holy Bull (G3)
7. Grande (Curlin – Journey Home, by War Front) Scratched
Post 10 | M/L: 20/1 | Fair Odds: 15/1 | Jockey: John Velazquez | Trainer: Todd Pletcher
🔹 Pedigree-rich and proven under pressure. Grande stepped up in the Wood Memorial and ran a big race — wide the whole way, midpack early, and still came charging to finish a clear second behind Rodriguez. His classic stamina, thanks to a strong Curlin/War Front pedigree, and the ground loss + lone speed factor make him an interesting Kentucky Derby contender who should keep improving.
👀 Lightest Raced Runner. With just three starts under his belt, debuting in January, he’s learning fast — and may not have hit his ceiling yet. He draws well with post 10, but one new red flag: just a single work since the Wood Memorial (G2).
🌹 Road to the Roses: 2nd – Wood Memorial (G2) | 1st – Allowance Optional Claiming | 1st – Maiden Special Weight
8. Final Gambit (Not This Time – Pachinko, by Tapit)
Post 3 | M/L: 30/1 | Fair Odds: 15/1 | Jockey: Luan Machado | Trainer: Brad Cox
🔹 The most explosive closer in the field? After an impressive last-to-first maiden win in his third start, Final Gambit crushed the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at 15/1, storming down the lane to win by 3.5 lengths and crushing the class test. He draws well in post 3 as a slow starter surrounded by speed and will just need a seam late to come flying home.
❓ But dirt is the question. This will be his dirt debut. Cox started him on turf after underwhelming dirt drills in 2024, but his four workouts over Churchill Downs’s main track have all been positive. He’s a wildcard — but he’s for real.
🌹 Road to the Roses: 1st – Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), 1st – Maiden Special Weight, 2nd – Maiden Special Weight
9. East Avenue (Medaglia d’Oro – Dance Music, by Ghostzapper)
Post 12 | M/L: 20/1 | Fair Odds: 20/1 | Jockey: Manny Franco | Trainer: Brendan Walsh
🔹 Blinkers bring him back to life. The equipment change lit a fire. In the Blue Grass (G1), he carved out a strong pace, dismissed multiple early challengers, and nearly held off Burnham Square. His stretch fight showed speed and grit — stuff he flashed in his wire-to-wire Breeders’ Futurity (G1) win that we all hoped would return. Now he breaks from post 12 with closers all around him, look for him to fly early and angle in.
🥊 The hype may not have been wrong. Once the top-ranked 2-year-old on many boards, East Avenue’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) stumble excuses him there, but his Rebel (G2) dud still haunts. Connections still make the big race, but will need to improve.
🌹 Road to the Roses: 2nd – Blue Grass (G1) | 10th – Rebel (G2) | 9th – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
10. Baeza (McKinzie – Puca, by Big Brown)
Post 21 (AE) | M/L: 12/1 | Fair Odds: 10/1 | Jockey: Flavien Prat | Trainer: John Shirreffs
🔹 Too good to be an Also Eligible. A half-brother to Mage and Dornoch, Baeza already looks like the family’s next star. He crushed a maiden at third asking, then jumped way up in class to run a strong second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), defeating Citizen Bull and Barnes.
⏰ Waiting in the wings. As of today, He’ll need a scratch to draw in — and if he draws into post 20, he’ll have to gun it or risk getting hung out to dry. It may be best to wait for the Preakness.
🌹 Road to the Roses: 2nd – Santa Anita Derby (G1) | 1st – Maiden Special Weight | 2nd – Maiden Special Weight
📝 The Rest of the Field (11–21)
These runners made our final board but didn’t crack the top 10 — and some are showing up in our Live Longshots & Fades post for good reason…
11. Tiztastic (Tiz The Law – Keesha by Tapit)
Post 14 | M/L: 20/1 | Fair Odds: 20/1 | Jockey: Joel Rosario | Trainer: Steve Asmussen
12. Chunk of Gold (Preservationist – Play for Gold by Cairo Prince)
Post 19 | M/L: 30/1 | Fair Odds: 30/1 |Jockey: Jareth Loveberry | Trainer: Ethan West
13. American Promise (Justify – Tapella by Tapit)
Post 5 | M/L: 30/1 | Fair Odds: 30/1 |Jockey: Nik Juarez | Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
14. Coal Battle (Coal Battle – Wolfblade by Midshipman)
Post 16 | M/L: 30/1 | Fair Odds: 30/1 | Jockey: Juan Vargas | Trainer: Lonnie Briley
15. Citizen Bull (Into Mischief – No Joke by Distorted Humor)
Post 1 | M/L: 20/1 | Fair Odds: 30/1 |Jockey: Martin Garcia | Trainer: Bob Baffert
16. Publisher (American Pharoah – Indian Pride by Proud Citizeni)
Post 13 | M/L: 30/1 | Fair Odds: 40/1 | Jockey: Irad Ortiz | Trainer: Steve Asmussen
17. Flying Mohawk (Karakontie– Bonbons Fleur by Twirling Candy)
Post 11 | M/L: 30/1 | Fair Odds: 50/1 | Jockey: Joe Ramos | Trainer: Whit Beckman
18. Admire Daytona (Drefong – Ice Pastel by Shackleford)
Post 6 | M/L: 30/1 | Fair Odds: 50/1 | Jockey: Christophe Lemaire | Trainer: Yukihiro Kato
19. Neoequos (Neolithic – Bold Birdie by Birdstone)
Post 2 | M/L: 30/1 | Fair Odds: 100/1 | Jockey: Flavien Prat | Trainer: Saffie Joseph
20. Render Judgment (Blame – Barbara Gordon by Commissioner)
Post 15 | M/L: 30/1 | Fair Odds: 100/1 | Jockey: Julien Leparoux | Trainer: Kenny McPeek
21. Owen Almighty (Speightstown – Tempers Rising by Bayern)
Post 20 | M/L: 30/1 | Fair Odds: 100/1 | Jockey: Javier Castellano | Trainer: Brian Lynch
🔮 Final Thoughts
With the field now set, the real debate begins. We’ve ranked all 21 Kentucky Derby contenders—but no one wins this race on paper. From pace meltdowns to perfect trips, May 3rd is all about execution.
We want to hear from you:
💥 Who are your top three Kentucky Derby picks?
📉 Which horse is getting overlooked?
🔥 Will Baeza draw in—or is he headed for a Preakness breakout?
📲 Drop your takes in the comments or join the convo on Twitter (X) and Instagram. We’ll be sharing fan picks, poll results, and more as Derby Week heats up.
📅 Now LIVE: Our Live Longshots post drops next — featuring value plays and big-name fades you won’t want to miss.
🎯 And don’t forget to follow our socials for free stakes picks for both Oaks and Derby Day.
The most exciting two minutes in sports is practically here. 🏇💨 Stay sharp.
